The Weekend Preview

First rule of the over 0.5 goals market… Do not bet on women’s international under 20’s football.

Second rule of the over 0.5 goals market… DO NOT BET ON WOMEN’S INTERNATIONAL UNDER 20’S FOOTBALL.

Third rule of the over 0.5 goals market……. You get the point.

Wait!! What!! Goal!!!!!!!!! Scrap that. Bet on everything!! ESPECIALLY women’s international under 20’s football (do not bet on everything. When the fun stops and all that…)

Another winner for The Panel. Admittedly, The Panel’s algorithm and extortionately high betting score could not of predicted Ye-Ji Namgung of South Korea Under 20’s would have the composure of an anesthetized Andrea Pirlo to dispatch the penalty so confidently. However – it could highlight to us there is an extremely high probability there will be a goal in this game.

Since the surge of the ever increasingly popular in-play markets, I’ve blindly followed multiple online ‘tipsters’ yelling at me from behind their keyboards “BET NOW”, “CHALLENGE BET 478”, “OVER 10.5 GOALS IN THIS GAME, GUARANTEED”, BOOOOOOOOOM”. Of course Kakamega Homeboyz (genuine Kenyan team…) vs AFC Leopards (again a genuine Kenyan team) finished 0-0. The stats obviously suggested it at half time, the league position proves neither team are dominant in the goal scoring department, so why did I assume Big Barry’s Bets (not a genuine tipster, nor Kenyan football team) knew something else that we/the live in-play stats or the league table didn’t! They’re playing in Nairobi on a Tuesday morning for god sake! Who the hell is motivated on a Tuesday morning to do anything!!

Luckily, The Panel has a resolution. We use stats, lots and lots of stats. We no longer need to rely on Barry from Kettering and his dodgy named Kenyan teams (unless they’re betting score is greater than 50% obviously). The algorithm will produce a betting score based on stats for any game that is 0-0 at half time and publish onto our Twitter feed (@gamblingpanel) any where the score is greater than 50%. Obviously the higher the betting score, the greater chance there is of a goal in that game being scored. This still does not ‘guarantee’ winners, but with over a years worth of stats, the vast range of live data now available and the 80% win rate we’re currently running at – it’s a better option than relying on the wi-fi signal from Barry’s parents basement.

(No Barry’s were harmed in the writing of this post).

 

Ones to watch this weekend:

Unfortunately we can’t guarantee these games will appear on the feed this weekend (probably because they will all be 4-4 at half time) but if they do, based on the stats we have… Lump on!

Note – these are value selections where the half time price in the over 0.5 goals market is likely to be between 1/4 – 3/10.

Derby County v Norwich (England)

I know what you’re thinking ‘Derby F***ing County’. And rightly so, they’ve been woeful in the scoring department and would’ve been nowhere near this list a month ago. How things change. Derby’s last three games have averaged 3.33 goals per game, Norwich’s 4.33. If my maths if correct – you can expect a 2.2 – 1.7 Norwich win. If this is 0-0 at half time and does not meet the minimum betting score criteria, I’ll eat Steve McClaren’s brolly.

Dnipro v Shakthar Donetsk (Ukraine)

A bit Michael Schumacher here… Off piste. Too soon…. Sorry. The formula for this one is simple, Dnipro + Shakthar / arctic conditions x previous meetings = GOALS. These two have averaged 4 goals per game in their last 4 meetings, had only one 0-0 between them this season and success rate in the over 0.5 goals market for Ukraine is 92%. Chicken dinner is on the menu after this one.

Hearts v Motherwell (Scotland)

The Panel will have their very own Chris Kamara for this fixture. Whilst three quarters are sitting in their pants eating Wotsits from their belly buttons, I’ll be their bumbling, red-card missing, unbelievable Jeffing, Lionel Ritchie lookalike live feed from Tynecastle. Scotland has been a kind mistress for The Panel in recent weeks and I’m hoping this fixture is no different. With a win ratio of 85% and Hearts’ previous three fixtures ending 3-3, 2-2, 3-3 – I’m expecting goals, and hopefully all in the second half….

FBC Melgar v Sporting Cristal (Peru)

A real Panel favourite this one. FBC Melgar make it into our Champions League positions as third best performing team. Love a 0-0 at half time, love a 1-0 win, perfect for The Panel. Usually steer clear of 1st v 2nd but confident both of these teams cant paper over the Grand Canyon sized cracks of these leaky defences. Expect 45 minutes of frustration, expect red cards, expect late winners, expect money in your account.

Jay @gamblingpanel

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