How we’re building the perfect model

Ok, we haven’t built the perfect model. Not yet. Take last weeks game between Atlético Paraná and Ferro Carril Oeste. Paraná -18th in Argentina’s Prim B Nacional, Ferro Carril Oeste unbeaten in 8 games. So when the half time stats gave us an 86.67% confidence score, an early red card for Parana’s Diego Reynoso and Ferro looking dominant – it looked a dead cert. 45 mins and 18 shots-on-target later, the full time whistle blew to give The Panel our first loss in 6 tweets. Damn you Yair Iván Bonnin (I am assuming Atlético Paraná’s keeper got man of the match).

Anyway, point being, we will tweet losers. The real trick is minimising those losers. We see tons and tons of twitter tipsters running £10 – £1000 challenge bets with heart on the sleeve bets posted and their followers getting carried away when a run of bets comes in. This inevitably leads to your own confidence gaining, resulting in sloppy betting. Then, it is all gone – and it’s time to start the next challenge.

The panel are different. We stay true our principles and place bets based on our constantly improving betting score.

iRobot

In the technology sector, we are seeing the effect of higher computing processing power, vast volumes of data being captured and a growing range of open tools for data manipulation driving innovation. It is now becoming much easier to deploy automated modelling with increasing sophistication in predictive analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence. And you will read the headlines:

  • “Robots will eliminate 6% of all US jobs by 2021”,
  • “Boston Consulting Group predicts that by 2025, up to a quarter of jobs will be replaced by either smart software or robots”,
  • “A study from Oxford University has suggested that 35% of existing UK jobs are at risk of automation in the next 20 years.”

A consistent message telling us humans are being replaced by machines and if you have a job that consists of repeatable tasks, a robot one day might do it instead. You only need to look at supermarket’s self-service checkouts, smart meters in the utilities sector, or most impressively, Google’s imminent roll out of driverless cars to show just how far we have come in such a short space of time.

Now, no matter how much I enjoy waking up on a Saturday morning and scouring the internet for 2 hours trying to pull together a range of football stats to make informed betting decisions, my girlfriend certainly does not! Ultimately, a human performing these repeatable tasks is 1) time consuming and 2) leads to errors.

So when the tweet notification comes pops up on my phone:

OVER 0.5 GOALS BET!

#Almagro 0 #AtléticoParaná 0

Shots On: 0-5

Bet Score = 68.89%

#2ndHalfGoals

The factors go through my head…What if Ferro Carril Oeste have drawn 0-0 two of their last four games? Or that Atlético Paraná are better at keeping clean sheets against the top teams? Or that Ferro Carril Oeste struggle against teams outside of Buenos Aires? Or that Ferro Carril Oeste’s ageing stricker Luis Ángel Salmerón hasn’t scored since returning from injury? Or that? Or this? Or that? I don’t have time to Google everything.

This is why our over 0.5 goals betting score is incorporating more and more automated data factors to produce an ever increasing accuracy on our confidence rating. It is driven from multiple stats from multiple sources. We have tracked nearly 2000 games and we are constantly integrating new factors all of which are seamlessly automated into the algorithm. Think of us as your driverless car – we are doing the hard work so you don’t have to. We are currently running at close to an 80% win rate and being on board with The Panel will help you one day swerve the Atlético Paraná vs Ferro Carril Oeste’s on the road.

One’s to watch:

Norwich vs Huddersfield (Friday 7:45 – Championship)

Starting with Friday’s game at Carrow Road. Both teams love a goal. And both teams are starting to gain a bit of form again after dropping off from a strong start. Most recently, both won their last game 1-0 with goals coming in the second half. I’d be surprised if an automated tweet isn’t sent if this is 0-0 at half time – would be a great start to the weekend!

Stoke Vs Leicester (Saturday 3pm – Premier League)

I’m predicting a goal for unpredictable Leicester here. Last weekend’s smashing of City was followed up with a loss at Bournemouth and after a slow start to their Premier League campaign, they need to start picking up points. I’d expect Stoke to keep it tight in a cagey affair but the 7th and 8th best players in the world (Mahrez and Vardy!!!) should have enough quality. But in the second half!

Al-Taawon vs Al Ahli (Saturday 4:45 – Saudi Arabia)

Al Ahli like a goal. 27 scored in 12 games sitting 4th and 5 points off top. However, Al-Taawon shouldn’t be a walkover as they have, in the last two games have kept it tight until 45th and 50th min respectively (winning 1, losing 1 1-0 both times). And with Saudi Arabia at over 85% win rate, if this is 0-0 at half time, I can’t see past an Al Ahli goal. Let’s just hope Asamoah Gyan has still got it (2 goals in 4 starts).

Alex@gamblingpanel

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/sep/13/artificial-intelligence-robots-threat-jobs-forrester-report

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-33327659

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