Festive Football – Be Careful What You Wish For…

Happy New Year to all. Unfortunately it wasn’t the start we were hoping for and last weekend we tipped just 4/7 correctly. Although continuing the festivities in a hazy blur was tempting, we needed to do a post-mortem on that day and determine why the success rate was down so much compared to the average of 81%.

Well, looking at the games selected on some it could be argued that lady luck was nowhere to be found. One falling into this category was Morecambe vs Crewe with 17 shots, 10 of which were on target at HT. Now, although the we only had a tracked 50% success rate of wins with such shots stats, the attacks continued to ramp up into the 2nd half. Therefore if we are being methodical, has a mistake actually been made? Under the observed in-play conditions there should have been a goal. Admittedly these two were struggling in the league table lying 19th and 16th respectively.

Others which possibly also struggled from a quality perspective were Boro vs Leicester where both could not break through. Clues in these matches may point to shortening confidence due to the teams not being in the greatest of form. However Sheffield Weds vs Wolves did not fall into this category, with Wednesday going great guns so maybe a different factor being applied there.

Perhaps ultimately, the New Years day fixtures consisted of 7 nil nils at full time. That is a record since we have begun and of course means there were more land mines to avoid that day.  Maybe the congested Christmas fixture list caught up with teams trying to find a breakthrough in the final third of many ties and players’ legs went; something we will need to factor into such periods of a season.

Regardless of whether sod’s law was to blame or it truly was an incorrect pick on the balance of probability, the outcome is the same, money out of the wallet. Therefore assessing likelihood of losing cannot be ignored, so expect more analysis from us justifying overall ROI in the future throughout peaks and troughs of a season – we’re all aware that strange results also occur in those relegation battles where arguably there’s more desperation to score. Anyway, the aim is to help you to be informed of how many losses could theoretically be experienced consecutively and therefore what pot size is needed to deal with these sore patches to get back to the good times.

A frustrating weekend but we will argue it should not happen again on the balance of probability.

Good news this week is normality seems to have resumed and they’ll be big gulfs in class occurring across Europe as domestic cup competitions come into the fray.

One’s to watch:

Monaco v Ac Ajaccio – (Friday 20:00 – French Cup)
Monaco obviously huge favourites for this one being a division above. So much so and with ACA being away I feel this forces their hand and back them here to try and park the bus and hold out to half time.

Hibernian v Dundee – (Friday 19:45 – Scottish Championship)
This top of the table clash could start cagey with Hibs drawing their last 2/3 and Dundee losing last game. With both teams not feeling invincible I can see no breakthrough until the 2nd half when I suspect at least one team will show their quality.

PAOK Thessaloniki v PAS Giannina – (Sunday 13:00 – Greek Superleague)
I’m rewarding a team here which has come in once already this week. PAOK are scoring for fun recently with recent form being 0-7 0-5 and 0-1,however two recent gritty displays by PAS including a draw against AEK Athens is why I fancy them to prolong the inevitable until the 2nd half.

Mike@gamblingpanel

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