How many times do you log into Facebook or Twitter and see a post from that scatty guy in the year above from school post another one of his ‘constant’ winning betting slips? £300 off a £40 first goalscorer bet or £500 off a 10/1 £50 acca. And the bragging -“Look at me, I earn money from gambling”. God it’s painful.
Now I’m pretty sure this guy still lives at home with his Mum and Dad, has the same bartender job he was working in 10 years ago, in the same bar that has changed it’s name 3/4 times since sixth form where we’d stock up on £1 bottles of Becks on a Tuesday night, and more importantly – this guy doesn’t post his MANY losing betting slips!
Now I am not saying you cannot make money from betting, but it is strange that Betfair post £393.6 million turnover, PaddyPower €881.6 million and Bet365 £1.5 billion, yet we see guys like the above, and many many many tipsters claiming to make money from them to help you win.
Strategy, Stats, Safety
Where The Panel try to be a bit different, is use statistical evidence to show how to win and address the situations where we do not. The key to the success of The Panel’s backing of the over 0.5 market is ensuring that a safe strategy is in place so that you are almost always guaranteed to make a profit. On the face of it, we encourage you to bet on our automated tweets at minimum 1/3 odds. This means that for every 4 bets, we can afford to lose 1 and still turn over a profit. Therefore, we need to run at at least a 75% win rate on all our tweets. We currently operate at 81%.
Case Study: 106 Bets 26/11/16 – 08/01/17
To prove this point, I decided to run a trial in which I would bet on every single game that we tweet to our followers that I possibly can (unfortunately I have a day job and have to sleep!). I’d also wait until it reached at least ⅓ odds (see full bet list at the end of this blog)
Below outlines three methodologies you could have followed:
1. The Hollywood
With this method, you will need to deposit your stake and keep reinvesting that profit until you lose. Ok, this is more of a theoretical method, but it shows how much could be banked. In the graphic below, we start with £5 and reinvest all winnings and stake. This shows us how much we could have won if withdrawing at the optimum moment:
As you can see, there are two clear spikes (a 12 game and 13 game winning streak) where we could have withdrawn almost £350. Only problem is, how do we know when to withdraw!?
Take our 22 game winning streak recently. If we had bet on every game starting with £5, assuming odds of around 1.3, we could have bagged £1605.92. Only problem is, if a tipster has won 22 games in a row, chances are you will trust him for bet number 23! Placing a £1605.92 on the 23rd game and losing would be hard to take!
Also, the amount of times we needed to re-invest our £5 over this period means we had to invest £120 to reach these peaks.
So with this strategy, it is possible to win big, but you need a run and you need to know when to withdraw. Set a withdrawal number before you begin. Let’s say it was £100, this 106 game run would have left you £70 up!
2. Mr Consistent
The second method below is more conservative. Here, we start with a stake and place a percentage of that stake on each time. The graph below shows starting with £5 but only placing £2 stakes until reaching £10 where we double the stake to £4. Then on £20, we double to £8, £40 we double to £16 and so on. If we ever lose, we reduce the stake to the bracket we end up in. This is safer and allows you to lose 2/3 in a row without losing outright.
The problems with this method is how much the loss affects you. The main issues here are around bet number 55 where we lost 3 in a row, then again on bet 83 where our 1 and only £16 bet lost, massively setting us back. Again there is a reliance on a run, and you should set a cash out value from the start. It may take a while, but this method should see you tread enough water to reach that value eventually.
3. Regular Saver
Finally, in the last method, we look at a combination of 1 and 2. Here, we start with £5, reinvest winnings until we reach £10, then withdrawn our £5 stake and play again. Then, when we reach £15, we cash out and start again. This way, we only need about a 6 game winning streak to bank cash.
See in the graph, every time we hit £15, we withdraw. This happens 5 times in this 106 game period so £75 withdrawn. For this method, we needed to again invest £120 for the losses, however, because we withdraw our stake when we reach £10, we take £90 of that back which leaves us -£30. So £75 – £30 = £45 winnings. We have made 9x our initial investment after just over a 2 month period with a safe strategy based on stats.
For this period, we can see our win rate converges towards 78% win rate:
The higher this percentage, the higher your return so the panel are dedicated to improving upon the current 81% win rate (over 2000+ games). Using this data, we are constantly adapting the bet score algorithm to make it more and more likely to tweet a winner.
Case Study Matches:
Ones to Watch
Crawley Town v Hartlepool United (Saturday 15:00 – League Two)
Both teams like to score and leak goals and they will go into the game knowing so. For this reason I expect a tight first half that is waiting to explode – hopefully in the second half! Crawley sit in our top 10 overall teams for wins (See https://thegamblingpanel.com/2017/01/07/weekly-stats-4/) so have been good to the panel in the past. Let’s just hope that we are not logging into Facebook and seeing you know who getting in on the act!
Brechin City Vs Queen’s Park (Saturday 15:00 – Scottish League One)
It is our weekly stats that draws me to this one as well. Not only does Scottish League One have a 100% win rate, but Queen’s Park sit in our top 10 teams as well. Brechin City have lost their last two games 1-0 on both occasions conceding in the second half (71st, 77th respectively) adds to the draw of this one
Portimonense Vs Sporting CP B (Sunday 11:15 – Portuguese Segunda Liga)
You may recognise Portimonense. They have been tweeted by the automated tweet 3 times since December 11th. We lost the first, but since they have picked up two 1-0 wins for us with 2nd half goals. Top vs 15th in the Segunda Liga so you can see Portimonense winning – let’s hope it is in the 2nd half!