The Gambling Panel v Cheltenham

Well, this feels all wrong… Firstly, it’s Tuesday! Tuesday bloody morning.. My Tuesday morning commute usually consists of drifting in and out of a state of consciousness whilst listening to the Sunday Supplement panel discuss Arsene Wenger’s latest cock-up and me trying to work out how many cigarillos a day and over what time period I would have to smoke to sound anything like Martin Samuel. It’s also a time for my body to work at 80% less than required rate suggested by medical experts as it punishes me for drinking the rocket fuel, weed killer, red wine top I consumed a few days prior. Secondly – this blog will feature a paragraph on another sport other than football… Don’t worry it’s not that egg chasing nonsense (apologies Aussie Rules fans).

This is the one week in the sporting calendar where football can hand in its holiday form, pack it’s arm bands and jet off to La Manga, Dubai or Thailand for some mid-season debauchery (preferably without Nigel Pearson’s son). This is Cheltenham week.

So whilst my ears try to decipher whether I’m listening to Martin Samuel discuss Pep’s decision to loan out Joe Hart for the 786th time or if it’s simply Neil Ashton clearing his throat, my eyes are checking out the Racing Post app in preparation for the week ahead.

By no means am I an expert in the field of animal racing – no algorithm’s here mate – just like any other clueless punter, I make money on the sport I know a lot about and waste it on a sport I do not. If I’m the Frank Lampard of football knowledge, I’m the Scotty Canham when it comes to racing – despite what the West Ham fans wanted to believe in 1996.

There are a lot of comparisons that can be taken from my analysis of Horse Racing and the analysis undertaken here at Gambling Panel HQ. The vigorous exploration starts with form, weight, class, going – that quickly moves onto: previous winners, has horse A got Cheltenham form? Has horse B got Festival form? But fundamentally, much like Luke Chadwick’s modelling career – comes to nothing. Unlike Football, where this type of analysis can be converted into a number and ultimately produce the BetScore.

As mentioned in previous blogs/tweets, we’re looking at introducing BetScoreV1. We’ve used the original formula since the birth of The Panel, and whilst we’re still running at a high win percentage (80%) we still believe there is room to improve. The introduction of stats such as: ‘Average goals per game scored/conceded’, ‘Number of clean sheets’, ‘Number of games failed to score’. This combined with the current in-play, league and historic Panel stats should make the BetScore more reliable than a Matt Le Tissier penalty.

The unique thing about The Gambling Panel is that we’re just four regular lads that love a bet and wanted to find a chink in the armour of the bookmaker. Unlike other tipster’s we’ve seen online – the ones with their £1 – £1million challenges “BET 4063 – OVER 9.5 GOALS IN THE RED LION V THE ROSE AND CROWN – GO, GO, GO”. We suffer when we lose! We believe in stats and probability as oppose to the gut feel of someone else telling us there might or might not be a goal in selected game.

Now whilst we don’t run these generic challenges and tell you guys when to bet – we know each punter is different and therefore we provide the tools for you to decide for yourselves whether you embark on your own challenges or if you simply back the games you fancy and avoid the ones you don’t. Either way, we’re confident that our method will make money.

Weekly Acca

Now this is a new feature introduced to the blog, replacing the guessing game that was ‘One’s to Watch’.

Disclaimer: These will be a combination of stats based bets but also potential ‘gut-feels’ so in no way should be related to our day-to-day Over 0.5 Goals tweets.

Leicester v Sevilla – (Tuesday 19:45 – Champions League) – Sevilla to qualify – 2/7

Now everyone seems to be getting a bit carried away with Leicester’s latest revival. Last time I checked Wes Morgan and Robert Huth were still their centre backs? Riyad Mahrez still didn’t give a shit and Jamie Vardy no longer wears his wrist guard!? Of course they cant win now. Also, I’m still bitter about the treatment of the Tinkerman – replaced him with a man that wouldn’t look out of place watering plants at B&Q.

Northampton v Port Vale – (Tuesday 19:45 – League 1) – Both Team to Score – 3/4

Northampton’s goals difference this season wouldn’t look out of place in the Eerste Divisie, so expect goals. Port Vale are by no means Jong Ajax – but have notched at least one in each of the last four and with Northampton having the second worse defence in the league, I can see supporters behind both of the goals having a field day.

Queen Mother Champion Chase (Wednesday 15:30 – Cheltenham) – Douvan to win – 1/4

– No value, will win, boost the price of the acca. Done.

Monaco v Man City (Wednesday 19:45 – Champions League) – Over 2.5 goals – 2/5

– Not sure if the pricing analyst at Bet365 saw the first leg, or is aware of how good Monaco are at scoring and how poor City are at not letting people score. This seems like a very generous price for a bet that should be in after 7 minutes… One in Monaco’s last 10 games has seen under 2.5 goals and I really don’t see City bucking the trend here. With shot stopping not a pre-requisite of a Pep Guardiola keeper – I fancy the catchy French chant “Vous etes merde et vous savez que vous etes” to be ringing round poor Willy’s head come Wednesday night. (Directly translated to “You’re shit and you know you are” – thanks Google).

Ajax v FC Copenhagen (Thursday 20:05 – Europa League) Ajax to qualify – Evens

I think this is unbelievable value. I know Ajax weren’t at the races (classic pun) in the first leg, but should be bang up for it here. They’ve won 15 of the last 16 homes games and I know Copenhagen have been in impressive form, but the quality of the leagues are gulfs apart. With just the 1-0 win needed, I see it being far more comfortable than that.

Sochaux v Nimes (Friday 19:00 – Ligue 2) Nimes win & under 2.5 – 11/2

I’ll wrap the acca up here with a Hollywood bet. Here at Panel HQ we love and hate this league in equal measures. Love, because it doesn’t produce many goals – therefore provides value in the ‘unders’ market. Hate, because it doesn’t produce many goals – therefore provides losers in the ‘overs’ market, that’s why I’m sticking to the under’s here. One out of the last five between these two has seen over 2.5 goals. Nimes are unbeaten in 11 and Sochaux have lost the last two (last home game 1-0). I’m relying on these trends continuing and Nimes nicking a late 1-0 winner here. Can see Christophe Camara losing his mind on the French equivalent to soccer Saturday at the final winning leg of The Gambling Panel’s acca…

6-fold pays – 50/1

Beers on Bet365.

Disclaimer above…

If you fancy treating The Gambling Panel to a Guinness or two, you’ll find us in the Guinness village at Chelts on Friday – most probably on our phones…

Jay@gamblingpanel

 

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