The most common question we get asked as The Gambling Panel from new followers is “What is the BetScore?” So this post will answer that question hopefully and the best way to do this is to break it down into three more questions:
Firstly, where does the BetScore come from? Well this is a relatively easy question to answer. The BetScore is the output from our algorithm. Hopefully you all know how we work now, but just in case. We use pre game and in play stats to highlight games where we think there will be a goal in the second half of that game. We have developed an algorithm that pulls together all of these stats and assigns a value to that game at half time, the BetScore. The games we are tracking are published on our Current Matches page and after half time you will see the BetScore that has been generated. Any games with a BetScore of 50% or greater are then automatically tweeted as a suggested game to bet on.
Secondly, what determines the value of the BetScore? Obviously we’re not going to give away the stats we use and weightings we assign them, but as you can see from the tweets one thing we use is shots on target. So using this as an example, you would expect a game with lots of shots on target to have a higher chance of there being a goal. Therefore the more shots on target the higher the BetScore. This is the most basic of examples, but the same logic is applied to the other stats we use and the higher those stats are the higher the BetScore. This does explain why we will sometimes get a BetScore above 100%, as going back to our example, there is no limit to the number of shots on target you can have. The calculation isn’t as simple as this though and each stat is weighted depending on how likely we feel it impacts on goals being scored, but we can’t give anymore away. The algorithm is our version of “The Colonels Secret Recipe.”
Finally, how do we define the BetScore? Basically it is how likely we think a goal will be scored based on the number of goal scoring opportunities in the game and the teams goal scoring abilities. Therefore the higher the BetScore, the more likely we think that a goal will be scored. It is important to note that the BetScore does not directly correlate with the chance of a goal being scored. So a 50% BetScore does not mean that it is 50/50 or 100% BetScore mean a goal is guaranteed. We all know that in football a goal takes just one moment of brilliance or one defensive mistake, but by assigning a higher BetScore to games where there are more goal scoring chances we feel that this is a good indication of a goal being scored.
As mentioned a few weeks ago in this blog, we told you that we were working on an new version of the BetScore. We are looking at extra stats that we can use to increase the number of winners we tweet as ultimately that is what we are here for. This work is on-going and we are testing it extensively before releasing so watch this space and we’ll keep you updated with our progress.