Going Global

Although this week we’ve probably been tipping more at night than in the day, we’ve had some terrific runs recently. 12/14 last Sunday and patches of decent runs leading up to it backed up by the weekly stats. An element of probability which is interesting is that we often go on big winning runs but sometimes suffer losses in fairly quick succession. Of course the repeated losses hit the pot harshly. One area of these quick losses was last week where we had 2 consecutively in Chile and anther 2 on Monday afternoon.

You’ve also started seeing the geographical spread of our coverage of matches. Take an example Saturday, we start down under in Australia in the A league or maybe Japan, come towards the west in Europe throughout the day and over to South America at night. Due to such global tipping and because our tweets are automated on stats means that we tip significantly higher volume of matches (our eyes are everywhere) than other tipsters. So with our average success rate at least keeping pace with others out there and our higher volume, you should be making money as long as you’re being proportional with your stake (and always have your phone on you).

Although, can we just treat any match as a standard football match no matter the location or league? Of course not, take a look at your typical bookmaker during an in play market and they will give quite different odds for 2 teams similarly on top in separate matches. This is because they consider factors like different divisions, countries amongst many others. This would make sense as perceived similar levels of pressure shown in inplay stats e.g. shots on/off and possession has quite a different outcome when you’ve got players like Aguero opposed to that guy who ate a pie on camera.

At The Panel, we are collating performance data from our wide span of countries and leagues to form a country success rate (you can get this here) to provide transparency to the punters. This shows you the total number of games we’ve covered to date from leagues in that country/region and the win rate we have from tips we’ve given. Of course how good the record is ultimately influences the BetScore produced.

We are always building our sample size and as part of the global tipping tour we go on each weekend we certainly have found some reliable countries (take Norway) and some unreliable areas of South America. Generally we don’t see any strong pattern for a particular continent but it’s worth familiarising yourself with some of the more extreme countries at both ends of the spectrum. Longer term we will provide more detailed weightings depending on the level of football as well i.e. which division the match is at and even how reliable the teams in question are at scoring.

Perhaps there is an onus on tipsters like us to do more of this extensive analysis due to the span of regions and potential quality of football we are covering. Your average tipster pretty much sticks to those inplays at the top of the bookie website that are televised and they do benefit from trying to predict outcomes based on a similar level of players and teams. Although, this is all rather foreseeable for the bookies to deal with due to the extent they can model such matches to a detailed level (many bookies utilise statistical relationships they have with many top teams e.g. Betway, Bet Victor). Not to mention the fact that more money goes on those elite club European markets skewing the value offered by Bookies.

Anyway hope you are enjoying the global tipping available from The Gambling Panel. And rest assured those damaging consecutively losses from Chile will be weeded out if required by the all encompassing BetScore.

Have a great Easter weekend.

Mike@gamblingpanel

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