Case Study: Winning With The Panel Part 2

A few months ago we wrote a blog on the different methods we had come up with to try and maximise profit from our tips and different members of The Gambling Panel are continuing to trial these. Everyone has there own method based on their approach to gambling and what their end goal is, so below is a new method that I’ve been trialling.

I’ve gone a slightly different route with the games we tip and I’m exploring the Goal Line market. I took a look at the full time result in all of the games we have tipped in 2017 to try and find what was the best market to bet on and the stats suggest this is the Goal Line 1,1.5 market. For those of you new to the Goal Line market, this bet splits your stake into two. Half of the stake goes onto over 1 goal and the other half goes onto over 1.5 goals. If there are 0 goals in the match you lose your whole stake. If there is only 1 goal in the match then half of your stake is returned. If there are 2 or more goals then the bet wins.

The first table below shows the outcome of the year to date tips and I took these and worked out the return on betting on every game with a level stake of £5 across 5 different markets. These results are shown in the second table.

Games 813
Over 0.5 623
Over 1.5 357
Ended 1-0 266
Losses 190
  Profit Odds
Over 0.5 £    88.23 1.3333
0.5, 1 £    91.25 1.425
Over 1 £  165.60 1.625
1, 1.5 £  348.50 2.1
Over 1.5 £  263.60 2.425

I’ve used the odds that are available at the same time as our recommended minimum on the over 0.5 market (1.333) to keep it consistent. As you can see over this period following any of these methods would have left you with a profit, but clearly the most profitable is the Goal Line over 1,1.5 market. Obviously it’s impossible to get on all of the tips we tweet due to missing the notification or the odds not reaching the desired target, but there are times when you can get better odds than 2.1 and others you miss will inevitably end up losing. These should cover some of those missed winners.

I’ve followed this method over the past month by betting £5 on every tip I could. I currently have a balance of £53.32 without needing to redeposit. In this period I missed tips due to reasons mentioned above and even survived black Saturday when we experienced 6 losses in a row. By using a level stake method you can survive these blips and then reap the rewards on the long winning streaks. The next part of this method will be to increase my stake. Currently I plan to do this when my pot reaches £60 and I will up the stake to £10 per bet. If this bet wins then I will continue with the £10 bets, if it loses then I’ll drop back down to £5 until I reach the £60 mark again. I’m hoping that by following this incremental increase in stake the long term winnings will be much greater.

This method also allows you to be a bit more flexible with the market you bet on. I’ve decided that I want to place at a minimum of 2.0 (evens) so if I do see the notification later in the game then I can switch to one of the bets higher up in my table. Similarly, if the desired odds aren’t there yet and a goal looks likely before they hit I can take over 1.5.

I’ll admit now that this isn’t a get rich quick method but our philosophy is to try and generate a continuous steady income rather than the boom and bust of the £25 to £10000 challenge bet.

Below are the other methods we wrote about in a previous blog in case you missed that one. We’d love to get your feedback on any of our methods that you’ve been following.

Andy@GamblingPanel

1. The Hollywood

With this method, you will need to deposit your stake and keep reinvesting that profit until you lose. Ok, this is more of a theoretical method, but it shows how much could be banked. In the graphic below, we start with £5 and reinvest all winnings and stake. This shows us how much we could have won if withdrawing at the optimum moment:

method-1

As you can see, there are two clear spikes (a 12 game and 13 game winning streak) where we could have withdrawn almost £350. Only problem is, how do we know when to withdraw!?

Take our 22 game winning streak recently. If we had bet on every game starting with £5, assuming odds of around 1.3, we could have bagged £1605.92. Only problem is, if a tipster has won 22 games in a row, chances are you will trust him for bet number 23! Placing a £1605.92 on the 23rd game and losing would be hard to take!

Also, the amount of times we needed to re-invest our £5 over this period means we had to invest £120 to reach these peaks.

So with this strategy, it is possible to win big, but you need a run and you need to know when to withdraw. Set a withdrawal number before you begin. Let’s say it was £100, this 106 game run would have left you £70 up!

2. Mr Consistent

The second method below is more conservative. Here, we start with a stake and place a percentage of that stake on each time. The graph below shows starting with £5 but only placing £2 stakes until reaching £10 where we double the stake to £4. Then on £20, we double to £8, £40 we double to £16 and so on. If we ever lose, we reduce the stake to the bracket we end up in. This is safer and allows you to lose 2/3 in a row without losing outright.

method-2

The problems with this method is how much the loss affects you. The main issues here are around bet number 55 where we lost 3 in a row, then again on bet 83 where our 1 and only £16 bet lost, massively setting us back. Again there is a reliance on a run, and you should set a cash out value from the start. It may take a while, but this method should see you tread enough water to reach that value eventually.

3. Regular Saver

Finally, in the last method, we look at a combination of 1 and 2. Here, we start with £5, reinvest winnings until we reach £10, then withdrawn our £5 stake and play again. Then, when we reach £15, we cash out and start again. This way, we only need about a 6 game winning streak to bank cash.

method-3

See in the graph, every time we hit £15, we withdraw. This happens 5 times in this 106 game period so £75 withdrawn. For this method, we needed to again invest £120 for the losses, however, because we withdraw our stake when we reach £10, we take £90 of that back which leaves us -£30. So £75 – £30 = £45 winnings. We have made 9x our initial investment after just over a 2 month period with a safe strategy based on stats.

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