Panel Warning – Avoid The Emotion!

Ah, the summer! The hottest June on record and I write this blog standing and squashed on a sweaty train packed of miserable commuters on another boiling hot day. Don’t get me wrong I love this time of year however, nothing emphasises it being summer solstice today more than the Gambling Panel’s ridiculously low autotweet volume – just 10 last week. Damn I miss real football!!!

As I try to do my blog research, ignoring the fight that nearly breaks out between one commuter and another because he was ‘pushing me in the fucking back mate’, I thought, it seems like a lot of the other tipsters are tipping just as much now as they do during the season? How can they find the tips when most of the football world are in their summer break

So, I had a look. I took 7 tipsters with between 4k – 150k followers and plotted their tip rate from around March to now (I’ve kept them anonymous as we don’t want to get in any kind of tipster Twitter war).

Capture

*June extrapolated to complete month

 

Season Average vs June Volumes

Season Ave June Percentage Change
Tipster 1 138 132 -4.35%
Tipster 2 180 102 -43.33%
Tipster 3 114 69 -39.47%
Tipster 4 29 32 10.34%
Tipster 5 80 69 -13.75%
Tipster 6 40 24 -40.00%
Tipster 7 131 122 -6.87%
GamblingPanel 232 90 -61.21%


As you can see, some of these guys are tweeting almost just as much – if not more than the regular European season! It feels like they are looking for anything and everything to bet on! Some ‘football’ tipsters even resorting to tennis and horse racing to get their daily kicks!

 

Our tip rate has dropped 61% and most of ours are missed by us as they are through the night South American tips (You lucky lot over in the Americas!). The reason for the drop is simple. Less games = less tips. For us anyway.

I then thought I’d analyse the success rate of the tipsters in June. Now, I have just moved house (to the ‘burbs, hence the commuter moan) so I couldn’t find the time to analysing every tip from every tipster (apparently sorting out the water, gas and electric are more important than the Gambling Panel’s blog – what does she know!) but I managed look at two:

 

Wins Loses Win Rate Average Odds Required Break Even Diff
Tipster 1 33 21 61.11% 1.59 62.89% -1.78%
Tipster 4 17 8 68.00% 1.39 71.61% -3.61%


Both tipsters BOOOM in the winners and mainly ignore the losers but as you can see, both are turning over a loss (if you placed an even stake on all their tips). My point here is be careful…these tipsters want to bet which is too emotional for the panel.

The Emotion of Betting

Humans are emotional. And in the betting world that is dangerous for anybody wanting to turn over profit. Bookies make a fortune out of 99% of their customers relying on this fact. They want you to go chasing. They want you to be invested in ‘Challenge Bets’ that lose on bet 6 or 7. They want your money! And they are pretty good at getting it!

“Another thing that some inexperienced bettor often fear is that they are missing too many good chances, so they will start betting on just about anything to meet their “daily quota””

I took this from an article here about emotional betting.

It is the “daily quota” comment that made me think of good old ‘Big Barry’s Bets’, our fictional tipster, (From a very old blog!) who is probably now scrabbling around the Australian Regional South Australia Premier League on an over 1.5 goals bet on a Saturday morning (This was an actual tip from a tipster!).

Yes we may come across as robotic, but our methodical approach keeps you level headed. We are about taking the emotion out of betting, patience and structured approach – the key to a winning strategy.

“you should never bet if you don’t see true value in the bet you are making, no matter how few bets you make. It’s about finding value and with time your radar will be more accurate and you will be able to find many solid bets. Just remain patient and give yourself time.”

Big panel trip to Madrid this weekend! Shame there is no football, but we’ll keep on monitoring the tweets and I am sure earn some extra Euro’s for the beer whip!

Happy Paneling!

alex@gamblingpanel

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