Panel Warning – Avoid The Emotion!

Ah, the summer! The hottest June on record and I write this blog standing and squashed on a sweaty train packed of miserable commuters on another boiling hot day. Don’t get me wrong I love this time of year however, nothing emphasises it being summer solstice today more than the Gambling Panel’s ridiculously low autotweet volume – just 10 last week. Damn I miss real football!!!

As I try to do my blog research, ignoring the fight that nearly breaks out between one commuter and another because he was ‘pushing me in the fucking back mate’, I thought, it seems like a lot of the other tipsters are tipping just as much now as they do during the season? How can they find the tips when most of the football world are in their summer break

So, I had a look. I took 7 tipsters with between 4k – 150k followers and plotted their tip rate from around March to now (I’ve kept them anonymous as we don’t want to get in any kind of tipster Twitter war).


*June extrapolated to complete month


Season Average vs June Volumes

Season Ave June Percentage Change
Tipster 1 138 132 -4.35%
Tipster 2 180 102 -43.33%
Tipster 3 114 69 -39.47%
Tipster 4 29 32 10.34%
Tipster 5 80 69 -13.75%
Tipster 6 40 24 -40.00%
Tipster 7 131 122 -6.87%
GamblingPanel 232 90 -61.21%

As you can see, some of these guys are tweeting almost just as much – if not more than the regular European season! It feels like they are looking for anything and everything to bet on! Some ‘football’ tipsters even resorting to tennis and horse racing to get their daily kicks!


Our tip rate has dropped 61% and most of ours are missed by us as they are through the night South American tips (You lucky lot over in the Americas!). The reason for the drop is simple. Less games = less tips. For us anyway.

I then thought I’d analyse the success rate of the tipsters in June. Now, I have just moved house (to the ‘burbs, hence the commuter moan) so I couldn’t find the time to analysing every tip from every tipster (apparently sorting out the water, gas and electric are more important than the Gambling Panel’s blog – what does she know!) but I managed look at two:


Wins Loses Win Rate Average Odds Required Break Even Diff
Tipster 1 33 21 61.11% 1.59 62.89% -1.78%
Tipster 4 17 8 68.00% 1.39 71.61% -3.61%

Both tipsters BOOOM in the winners and mainly ignore the losers but as you can see, both are turning over a loss (if you placed an even stake on all their tips). My point here is be careful…these tipsters want to bet which is too emotional for the panel.

The Emotion of Betting

Humans are emotional. And in the betting world that is dangerous for anybody wanting to turn over profit. Bookies make a fortune out of 99% of their customers relying on this fact. They want you to go chasing. They want you to be invested in ‘Challenge Bets’ that lose on bet 6 or 7. They want your money! And they are pretty good at getting it!

“Another thing that some inexperienced bettor often fear is that they are missing too many good chances, so they will start betting on just about anything to meet their “daily quota””

I took this from an article here about emotional betting.

It is the “daily quota” comment that made me think of good old ‘Big Barry’s Bets’, our fictional tipster, (From a very old blog!) who is probably now scrabbling around the Australian Regional South Australia Premier League on an over 1.5 goals bet on a Saturday morning (This was an actual tip from a tipster!).

Yes we may come across as robotic, but our methodical approach keeps you level headed. We are about taking the emotion out of betting, patience and structured approach – the key to a winning strategy.

“you should never bet if you don’t see true value in the bet you are making, no matter how few bets you make. It’s about finding value and with time your radar will be more accurate and you will be able to find many solid bets. Just remain patient and give yourself time.”

Big panel trip to Madrid this weekend! Shame there is no football, but we’ll keep on monitoring the tweets and I am sure earn some extra Euro’s for the beer whip!

Happy Paneling!


Hitting the Sweet Spot!

It’s weird being our first summer on Twitter and not having those regular European fixtures everyday to keep us busy – at this rate I’ll start reflecting on my life. As our promo showed, our global coverage means we still track plenty of leagues inplay but loads are over in South America kicking off through the night so not the most convenient, i think that’s why we get ultra critical feedback in the replies if any lose / goal too early!

You may have read a few posts ago I wrote about tracking the wins and losses based on the BetScore %. I think by the end of the European season the sample is becoming reasonable to hypothesis around what we’re seeing.

The main focus of our service is of course over 0.5, so that’s how I’ve measured success of our BetScore’s tipped. The below graph shows the average winning and losing BetScore % tip since start of 2017: tipscore p_w
Seems on over 0.5, we do have some surprising results when high pressure occurs in the 1st half of games. As you can see, the data points look a bit like a heart rate on the flight home from a stag do but there are some lines of best fit there. The difference in them shows that the average losing BetScore % is actually higher than the winning. Maybe this is where the favourite in these games causes the lesser team to shut up shop soon after half time or if the game is more even, then maybe it just dies out as so much effort is spent going all guns blazing in the 1st half.

When looking at the BetScore’s in intervals of 10% and how they perform, there does seem a sweet spot of the 60-70% range where the win rate is 85%. That’s over 5 wins for each loss and it will be interesting to see if it carries on to next season. We have a balance to find here at Panel HQ where we want to adjust the BetScore algorithm where we see improvements but also need to wait long enough to see a true reflection of what’s going on.

A caveat to this discussion though is although the sample size is larger at this point, the last half of it was through the relegation scraps at season-end. We saw plenty of weird results through that period with more factors in play as some teams had nothing to play for and some with everything to play for. Those with everything seemed to be more likely to defend early and stay resolute to rack up every point possible. It will be interesting to see if we have some irregularities at season-start as well as teams find their feet.

It’s also important to note that this graph does not discuss success of over 1.5. A potential next area I’ll look into is how the BetScore % would compare for winners and losers in this market including the success spread across score intervals. As if you think about how a game pans out, where the big gaps in quality and therefore pressure exist, there is usually a greater likilihood in either staying nil nil if the poor teams parks the bus, or having more than one goal once the deadlock is broken. So there could even be some value on backing the horrible unders market if there is a big gulf of in-play stats, especially if there has been a red card. We won’t go auto-tipping that just yet but we don’t see these factors being considered by the bookies.

Try to enjoy the internationals this weekend and hopefully we’ll have more action from the server in the daytime!


Case Study: Winning With The Panel Part 2

A few months ago we wrote a blog on the different methods we had come up with to try and maximise profit from our tips and different members of The Gambling Panel are continuing to trial these. Everyone has there own method based on their approach to gambling and what their end goal is, so below is a new method that I’ve been trialling.

I’ve gone a slightly different route with the games we tip and I’m exploring the Goal Line market. I took a look at the full time result in all of the games we have tipped in 2017 to try and find what was the best market to bet on and the stats suggest this is the Goal Line 1,1.5 market. For those of you new to the Goal Line market, this bet splits your stake into two. Half of the stake goes onto over 1 goal and the other half goes onto over 1.5 goals. If there are 0 goals in the match you lose your whole stake. If there is only 1 goal in the match then half of your stake is returned. If there are 2 or more goals then the bet wins.

The first table below shows the outcome of the year to date tips and I took these and worked out the return on betting on every game with a level stake of £5 across 5 different markets. These results are shown in the second table.

Games 813
Over 0.5 623
Over 1.5 357
Ended 1-0 266
Losses 190
  Profit Odds
Over 0.5 £    88.23 1.3333
0.5, 1 £    91.25 1.425
Over 1 £  165.60 1.625
1, 1.5 £  348.50 2.1
Over 1.5 £  263.60 2.425

I’ve used the odds that are available at the same time as our recommended minimum on the over 0.5 market (1.333) to keep it consistent. As you can see over this period following any of these methods would have left you with a profit, but clearly the most profitable is the Goal Line over 1,1.5 market. Obviously it’s impossible to get on all of the tips we tweet due to missing the notification or the odds not reaching the desired target, but there are times when you can get better odds than 2.1 and others you miss will inevitably end up losing. These should cover some of those missed winners.

I’ve followed this method over the past month by betting £5 on every tip I could. I currently have a balance of £53.32 without needing to redeposit. In this period I missed tips due to reasons mentioned above and even survived black Saturday when we experienced 6 losses in a row. By using a level stake method you can survive these blips and then reap the rewards on the long winning streaks. The next part of this method will be to increase my stake. Currently I plan to do this when my pot reaches £60 and I will up the stake to £10 per bet. If this bet wins then I will continue with the £10 bets, if it loses then I’ll drop back down to £5 until I reach the £60 mark again. I’m hoping that by following this incremental increase in stake the long term winnings will be much greater.

This method also allows you to be a bit more flexible with the market you bet on. I’ve decided that I want to place at a minimum of 2.0 (evens) so if I do see the notification later in the game then I can switch to one of the bets higher up in my table. Similarly, if the desired odds aren’t there yet and a goal looks likely before they hit I can take over 1.5.

I’ll admit now that this isn’t a get rich quick method but our philosophy is to try and generate a continuous steady income rather than the boom and bust of the £25 to £10000 challenge bet.

Below are the other methods we wrote about in a previous blog in case you missed that one. We’d love to get your feedback on any of our methods that you’ve been following.


1. The Hollywood

With this method, you will need to deposit your stake and keep reinvesting that profit until you lose. Ok, this is more of a theoretical method, but it shows how much could be banked. In the graphic below, we start with £5 and reinvest all winnings and stake. This shows us how much we could have won if withdrawing at the optimum moment:


As you can see, there are two clear spikes (a 12 game and 13 game winning streak) where we could have withdrawn almost £350. Only problem is, how do we know when to withdraw!?

Take our 22 game winning streak recently. If we had bet on every game starting with £5, assuming odds of around 1.3, we could have bagged £1605.92. Only problem is, if a tipster has won 22 games in a row, chances are you will trust him for bet number 23! Placing a £1605.92 on the 23rd game and losing would be hard to take!

Also, the amount of times we needed to re-invest our £5 over this period means we had to invest £120 to reach these peaks.

So with this strategy, it is possible to win big, but you need a run and you need to know when to withdraw. Set a withdrawal number before you begin. Let’s say it was £100, this 106 game run would have left you £70 up!

2. Mr Consistent

The second method below is more conservative. Here, we start with a stake and place a percentage of that stake on each time. The graph below shows starting with £5 but only placing £2 stakes until reaching £10 where we double the stake to £4. Then on £20, we double to £8, £40 we double to £16 and so on. If we ever lose, we reduce the stake to the bracket we end up in. This is safer and allows you to lose 2/3 in a row without losing outright.


The problems with this method is how much the loss affects you. The main issues here are around bet number 55 where we lost 3 in a row, then again on bet 83 where our 1 and only £16 bet lost, massively setting us back. Again there is a reliance on a run, and you should set a cash out value from the start. It may take a while, but this method should see you tread enough water to reach that value eventually.

3. Regular Saver

Finally, in the last method, we look at a combination of 1 and 2. Here, we start with £5, reinvest winnings until we reach £10, then withdrawn our £5 stake and play again. Then, when we reach £15, we cash out and start again. This way, we only need about a 6 game winning streak to bank cash.


See in the graph, every time we hit £15, we withdraw. This happens 5 times in this 106 game period so £75 withdrawn. For this method, we needed to again invest £120 for the losses, however, because we withdraw our stake when we reach £10, we take £90 of that back which leaves us -£30. So £75 – £30 = £45 winnings. We have made 9x our initial investment after just over a 2 month period with a safe strategy based on stats.

What (not) to do when the odds aren’t good enough?

1/9 Pffffftt (insert crying laughter emoji here)

A standard incoming comment at Panel HQ – imagine sent by the Charlie Morgan type person* the sooner we employ someone to find these, delete these and block the sender, the better….. Okay a bit extreme, but we see this all too often.

I can see the logic, I get it – online tipster posting tips at 1/9 is ridiculous. Firstly, it doesn’t take a tipster to say that a 1/9 shot is likely to happen. Secondly, putting £9 on to win 1 is hardly going to get you invited to be the next Dragon in the den. I see your point. But we aren’t just any other tipster saying bet on this, with this amount, at this price – we’re very different.

Here at TGP (that is The Gambling Panel, not some unknown sex abbreviation Twitter would lead you to…) the tips are all automated. Whether it’s 10/1 or 1/10 – if the stats appease the algo, it will tweet! We also don’t dictate how much to bet, which method to use or when to bet. Our service automatically provides you the information that a game is currently 0-0 and looks great for a goal.

As users of our system, we share your frustrations when we check to see Barcelona at home to a Tony Adams “managed” Granada is 1/12 at the time of the tweet… But we don’t tweet our frustration (as it is out of our hands) we wait until it reaches a sensible price, then we bet. If there’s a goal before the price is reasonable, then we don’t go to bed and wait for the South American market to start, simples…

So next time you receive a tweet from The Gambling Panel for a game where the odds aren’t backable yet, before venting your frustration with a tweet to us – think:

– Was the tweet automated?

– Did The Gambling Panel decide the price?

– Can The Gambling Panel do anything about the poor price?

– Can I wait to see the price improve or even back over 1.5 goals?

If the sequence of answers to these questions matches Yes, No, No, Yes – then don’t tweet your annoyance, we already understand. If the sequence of answers to these questions is anything else… stick to following Andy Nobson.

A gambley day in the life of Jay

When I’m not rhyming sub-headers I’m answering another popular question fired into Panel HQ – ‘Which technique is best for long-term profit?’ – now I cant answer this with stats and cold hard facts yet, but I can give you an insight into a technique which has proved successful for me. Even on one of The Panel’s darkest days – Saturday 29th April aka Serie B-gate.

It started so well. Panel day out – Fulham v Brentford. Beers in. Longshot acca’s on. £15 in my account ready to place on the next Gambling Panel tweet. Perfect, and it’s not even 10am.

~BUZZ~ #YanbianFunde 0 #ChangchunYatai 0

So my first port of call is to open FotMob, check the league table – is one team far superior than the other (always a preference), do both teams score and/or concede more than they’ve played (an obvious criteria), have they drawn many recent games 0-0, have there been many 0-0’s in the H2H stats.

All criteria suitably met – 15 sovs on at 1/2. Beer please.

It’s not too long before the winning buzz comes through. Lovely.


So another thing I like is to always have money remaining in my account, takes a slight (ever so slight) edge off when that dreaded loss comes. A tenner left in, warchest currently at £12.50…

As the morning went on, the current matches page got refreshed more times than The Fappening website in it’s prime. Desperate for one last cheeky Asian match to tweet. Alas, it didn’t. The European market clocks in.

Whilst I patiently wait for the next bet we managed to find the one of the roughest pubs in Fulham… (yeah apparently they do exist in Fulham) and as luck would have it, not only was the answer to the first pub quiz question ‘What are you looking at?’ Said pub was also incapable of receiving texts and more importantly, tweets… A brace of German losses missed. Luckily, because looking at the stats after I would’ve smashed into the double.

Soon after…

~BUZZ~ #Latina 0 #Ascolii 0

~BUZZ~ #Ternana 0 #Carpi 0

~BUZZ~ #Spezia 0 #SPAL 0

Perfect. An Italian hatty. I’m usually pretty sceptical about one Serie B game, let alone three, but a skinful of Guinness does wonderful (terrible) things. F*ck it – I’m on. £12.50 on the 2.7/1.

Soon after…


All lost. Unheard of from The Panel. Five defeats on the bounce. I was as angry as Troopz hearing Wenger has signed a new 10 year contract. Fam.

No hiding place at Craven Cottage unfortunately. Every direction we turn, another rake to stand on. Apologetic tweet sent. Understandable angry backlash awaits and there were some good’uns…


3pmer’s came and went, left due to a lack of signal inside the Cottage and to regain my composure – more importantly to refrain from chasing (which is so often the temptation).

SOS tenner is in-play and so the run begins…

~BUZZ~ #Boavista 0 #Tondela 0 – 8/15 – IN


~BUZZ~ #Vitkovice 0 #UstinadLabem 0 – 2/5 – IN

£21.47 – Security tenner contingency plan out of the window.

~BUZZ~ #Nantes 0 #Lorient 0 – 2/5 – IN


~BUZZ~ #RealPotosi 0 #ClubUniversitario 0 – 4/11 – IN


~BUZZ~ #Chaves 0 #Porto 0 – 3/10 – IN


(Note – more games than this run were tweeted. They just didn’t meet my personal criteria for backing – obviously they all won as well!)

~BUZZ~ #Iberia 0 #CoquimboUnido 0 – 2/5 – IN


~BUZZ~ #Guadalajara 0 #Leon 0 – 1/3 – IN


What a turn of fortunes! Lady luck finally shining on us. My withdrawal limit is usually £100 but after consuming Ade Akinfenwa’s weight in Tequilla and Espresso Martini’s and with my state of judgement as good as the McCann’s, I’d let the 78p slide.

So there’s an insight into my use of The Gambling Panel’s tweets. It doesn’t always work, sure. But I find it works for me and I can definitely say I’ve withdrawn more than I’ve deposited – so I must be doing something right.


*Charlie Morgan – Swansea Ballboy vs Chelsea 2013. Remember this guy? Man did he irk me. What a pr*ck. I’m sure he’s matured into a tolerable lad now, but seriously look at that…

blog120517 - 1blog120517 - 2blog120517 - 3

Actually forget it, he’s probably still a ……….

In The Server Room…


Our Twitter account is 6 months old next week, in that time we’ve had a lot of new followers and lots of new questions recently – thanks for getting involved and all the (nice) comments! I hope a lot of you have been benefiting from our tweets!

The over 0.5 goals market is something we have actually been tracking for nearly 2 years now with 2600+ games in our database. And it is this data that underpins our confidence in the algorithm that decides – come 0-0 at half time – do we tweet a game? We know, based on historic games, we predict that correctly 80% of the time. With that, a bet of better odds than 1/4 (80% Breakeven) is required to guarantee a long term gain.

This is something we wanted to share with the world and hence @gamblingpanel was born!


We get asked a lot of questions about ‘What shall I stake?’ and ‘What techniques do you use to win?’, ‘Why are there no tips today?’. There are multiple ways to maximise the profit you can gain from The Panel. In short, we don’t want to tell you how much to bet (We don’t know the size of your bank accounts!) and we have published some of the techniques we have used here: Case Study – Winning With The Panel

Our main principles:

  • Automate
    Our server is a machine without emotion. Automatically tweeting games based on our algorithm keeps our system level-headed. Some tipsters go on a run and get carried away or worse, start chasing losses. This is a massive contradiction on what we are about. The nature of our automation means some days are going to be quiet; some will make you feel like you can’t keep up!
  • Be Consistent
    Once you have a method, do not deviate. We hate seeing challenge bets from tipsters on twitter. When a tipster wins 6,7,8 in a row, it is easy to jump on the bandwagon. But tips lose – and you need to have a consistent method that can handle these losses. Ok, the odd few reach their target and a handful of people make a lot of money from it. But longer term, it is hard to make profit.
  • Use Stats
    Stats inform all of our decisions. From the bets we place, to the betting techniques we use, even the analytics of our own twitter account! There is so much data available and not a lot of people know how to combine, clean and analyse it to make decisions from it.
  • Strive to Improve
    And with this data, we aim to improve. Monitoring all our tips and the outcome of them allows us to add improvements over time.

New Visualisations:

Here are two new visuals added to our weekly stats that can help your betting:


Historic Win Rate – Shows how we are trying to adapt the algorithm for the better. We monitor our own performance and only make changes that should positively affect our win rate.

Over Goals Analysis – Shows each week if you could have made money betting on over 1.5, 2.5 etc. goals instead.

MemberZone – Coming Soon

Thanks for voting in our recent twitter poll in which you wanted ‘Both Teams to Score’ tweets made available (coming very soon – all the code is in place!). In the background, we have been working hard to utilise some of our existing techniques to analyse other markets – in particular, pre-game markets.


Part of our plan now is to give our followers the option to sign up to our MemberZone to gain full access to some of the more in-depth stats and some newer markets we roll out. We want to continue to improve and give you new features and it takes time and effort to do that.

We have lots of plans and a huge pipeline of features waiting to be deployed. We are still figuring out exactly what MemberZone is, but rest assured, it will contain the same transparency and same analytical approach we always apply which, as our experience has shown, makes our followers money.


Going Global

Although this week we’ve probably been tipping more at night than in the day, we’ve had some terrific runs recently. 12/14 last Sunday and patches of decent runs leading up to it backed up by the weekly stats. An element of probability which is interesting is that we often go on big winning runs but sometimes suffer losses in fairly quick succession. Of course the repeated losses hit the pot harshly. One area of these quick losses was last week where we had 2 consecutively in Chile and anther 2 on Monday afternoon.

You’ve also started seeing the geographical spread of our coverage of matches. Take an example Saturday, we start down under in Australia in the A league or maybe Japan, come towards the west in Europe throughout the day and over to South America at night. Due to such global tipping and because our tweets are automated on stats means that we tip significantly higher volume of matches (our eyes are everywhere) than other tipsters. So with our average success rate at least keeping pace with others out there and our higher volume, you should be making money as long as you’re being proportional with your stake (and always have your phone on you).

Although, can we just treat any match as a standard football match no matter the location or league? Of course not, take a look at your typical bookmaker during an in play market and they will give quite different odds for 2 teams similarly on top in separate matches. This is because they consider factors like different divisions, countries amongst many others. This would make sense as perceived similar levels of pressure shown in inplay stats e.g. shots on/off and possession has quite a different outcome when you’ve got players like Aguero opposed to that guy who ate a pie on camera.

At The Panel, we are collating performance data from our wide span of countries and leagues to form a country success rate (you can get this here) to provide transparency to the punters. This shows you the total number of games we’ve covered to date from leagues in that country/region and the win rate we have from tips we’ve given. Of course how good the record is ultimately influences the BetScore produced.

We are always building our sample size and as part of the global tipping tour we go on each weekend we certainly have found some reliable countries (take Norway) and some unreliable areas of South America. Generally we don’t see any strong pattern for a particular continent but it’s worth familiarising yourself with some of the more extreme countries at both ends of the spectrum. Longer term we will provide more detailed weightings depending on the level of football as well i.e. which division the match is at and even how reliable the teams in question are at scoring.

Perhaps there is an onus on tipsters like us to do more of this extensive analysis due to the span of regions and potential quality of football we are covering. Your average tipster pretty much sticks to those inplays at the top of the bookie website that are televised and they do benefit from trying to predict outcomes based on a similar level of players and teams. Although, this is all rather foreseeable for the bookies to deal with due to the extent they can model such matches to a detailed level (many bookies utilise statistical relationships they have with many top teams e.g. Betway, Bet Victor). Not to mention the fact that more money goes on those elite club European markets skewing the value offered by Bookies.

Anyway hope you are enjoying the global tipping available from The Gambling Panel. And rest assured those damaging consecutively losses from Chile will be weeded out if required by the all encompassing BetScore.

Have a great Easter weekend.


What is the BetScore?

The most common question we get asked as The Gambling Panel from new followers is “What is the BetScore?” So this post will answer that question hopefully and the best way to do this is to break it down into three more questions:

Firstly, where does the BetScore come from? Well this is a relatively easy question to answer. The BetScore is the output from our algorithm. Hopefully you all know how we work now, but just in case. We use pre game and in play stats to highlight games where we think there will be a goal in the second half of that game. We have developed an algorithm that pulls together all of these stats and assigns a value to that game at half time, the BetScore. The games we are tracking are published on our Current Matches page and after half time you will see the BetScore that has been generated. Any games with a BetScore of 50% or greater are then automatically tweeted as a suggested game to bet on.

Secondly, what determines the value of the BetScore? Obviously we’re not going to give away the stats we use and weightings we assign them, but as you can see from the tweets one thing we use is shots on target. So using this as an example, you would expect a game with lots of shots on target to have a higher chance of there being a goal. Therefore the more shots on target the higher the BetScore. This is the most basic of examples, but the same logic is applied to the other stats we use and the higher those stats are the higher the BetScore. This does explain why we will sometimes get a BetScore above 100%, as going back to our example, there is no limit to the number of shots on target you can have. The calculation isn’t as simple as this though and each stat is weighted depending on how likely we feel it impacts on goals being scored, but we can’t give anymore away. The algorithm is our version of “The Colonels Secret Recipe.”

Finally, how do we define the BetScore? Basically it is how likely we think a goal will be scored based on the number of goal scoring opportunities in the game and the teams goal scoring abilities. Therefore the higher the BetScore, the more likely we think that a goal will be scored. It is important to note that the BetScore does not directly correlate with the chance of a goal being scored. So a 50% BetScore does not mean that it is 50/50 or 100% BetScore mean a goal is guaranteed. We all know that in football a goal takes just one moment of brilliance or one defensive mistake, but by assigning a higher BetScore to games where there are more goal scoring chances we feel that this is a good indication of a goal being scored.

As mentioned a few weeks ago in this blog, we told you that we were working on an new version of the BetScore. We are looking at extra stats that we can use to increase the number of winners we tweet as ultimately that is what we are here for. This work is on-going and we are testing it extensively before releasing so watch this space and we’ll keep you updated with our progress.