The Season Preview

The time has finally arrived….. The long wait for proper football is finally over!

No more aggressively sponsored, logistically illogical, meaningless pre-season trophies – “Welcome to the Skittles stadium for the 3rd/4th placed playoff of the Skoda cup – sponsored by SKITTLES & SKODA!! First half will be played in Bangkok and the game will be concluded next week in Chicago”.

No more stories of how ‘ard Tony Pullis’ pre-season training is – No one gives a shit if they had to run up and down a mountain in flip flops dragging Hal Robson-Kanu (at least he’s useful for something) – they’ll still get a maximum of 45 points, comfortably avoid relegation but even more comfortably be the worst footballing team to grace the Premier League.

But most of all, proper football means proper gambling. Obviously The Gambling Panel is a global phenomenon, observing the world 24/7, on the lookout for the next tip. But whilst the algorithm can’t differentiate (yet) between Newport U23’s v The Queens Head and the World Cup Final, the outcome of these pre-season games has been a little unpredictable.

But finally, this ends… Come Saturday 15:59 – expect your phone to be vibrating at a pleasurable rate for Ashley Cole & Jermaine Pennant whilst you’re being dragged around Topshop.

Whilst here at Gambling Panel HQ our bread and butter is the In-Play markets – we do however regularly have an ante post long-term bet at the start of each season, so this year we thought we’d share those with you – feel free to get involved:

Southend Utd to be promoted – 7/1, or less risky alternative – Southend Utd to make the Play-offs – 3/1.

For me, The Shrimpers look a snip at this price. Don’t get me wrong, they are way behind the big guns in the race for promotion, and probably justifiably. The resources they have available to them are much less than their League One rivals. I don’t believe they should be shorter priced to be relegated (6/1) than promoted though.

Despite the lack of resources available to them, they’ve been shrewd in the Free Transfer market. Signing up Premier League experienced players Michael Turner, Anton Ferdinand for another season and fan favourite Michael Kightly. The latter looking like a particular coup – following his release from Burnley last season he had been linked with a return to the Championship with either Ipswich or Millwall. Yet he has decided to drop down two divisions to re-join his first Football League club.

Looking back at last season, they were quite unlucky not to nick a play-off place then. Missed out to Millwall by one point and that is finishing the season with a torrid run of 4 losses in the last 6. I’ve only seen them improve over the summer and with another years experience in this division, I see them putting pressure on race for promotion.

Not to mention the 18th return of Nile Ranger. Whilst still on holiday at her majesty’s pleasure for… Internet fraud!? That can’t be right… He’s a professional footballer earning thousands a week yet still feels the need to commit internet fraud!? No, surely not – can we check this…….. So, turns out it’s true, bloody mental. (Not just The Gambling Panel committing internet fraud then…. jokes). Hopefully in the short window he has outside of prison before his next misdemeanour, he bangs in enough goals to get us well on the way to promotion.

In spite of Phil Brown being the exact definition of ‘a bit marmite’, he just loves managing on a wet & windy Tuesday night away in Rochdale. He frankly doesn’t give a fuck that his Burton suit is getting battered by the elements and he has completely ruined his Brown Clark’s shoes. That’s the sort of manager that will be celebrating promotion come May.

Bournemouth to finish top half – 15/8.

Outside of the so called “big 7” the race for a top half finish is looking particularly wide open. You could make a case for a lot of teams and if it’s anywhere near as tight as last season then only 2 or 3 more wins on the board could make the world of difference. But I see this mini league coming down to just 5 teams, West Ham, Southampton, Leicester, Crystal Palace, and Bournemouth.

It’s a big season for West Ham, they have made some good signings and the fans will expect them to improve at home after a difficult first year at the London Stadium. The pressure will be on them to get off to a good start and they will need to kick on from there.

Southampton and Palace both have new managers that the players will need to adjust to. The Saints have a Virgil Van Dijk sized cloud still hanging over them and will need Gabbiadini to find his shooting boots again. Whilst Frank De Boer will need to ensure that his Palace players adapt to his style of play much better than Inter Milan did. There are doubts surrounding both of these teams.

Leicester will be looking to move on from last season and with no European football to contend with and the signing of Kelechi Iheanacho, I expect them to do well. The problem they could face is the potential departure of Riyad Mahrez and the knock on effect that this may have on the team.

As for Bournemouth, so far they have had a great transfer window. The signing of Jermaine Defoe to add to the goals of Josh King looks a great bit of business. Asmir Begovic is a step up on Artur Boruc and record signing Nathan Ake was having a great season prior to being recalled by Chelsea. After Ake left, Bournemouth went on an 8 game winless run and this is where the 2 or 3 additional wins that cement a top 10 finish could come from. As well as the signings made, they’ve also managed to hold onto all of their top talent. A number of players have signed long term deals, Lewis Cook will be full of confidence after leading England to the U20 World Cup, Tyrone Mings will be hoping to avoid injury (and Zlatan) and live up to the high expectations, and Ryan Fraser will be looking to build on a promising end to the season. Finally to their manager, Eddie Howe is winning fans throughout the game and is being tipped as a successor for some of the biggest jobs in the country. If only Arsene Wenger wasn’t so stubborn and masochistic we may have seen Howe down at The Emirates this season. Begovic recently described Howe’s work ethic as “second to none” and that “his attention to detail is huge. He does not leave any stone unturned.” This is a man who’s past two managers were Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte, men well known in the game for their work ethos and attention to detail, so not a bad comparison.

All of this bodes well for The Cherries and if they can finish within the top 3 of this 5 team mini league I feel that this bet will be a comfortable win, even if it’s not at a huge price.

Arsenal to finish top London club – 11/4 or a more risky alternative – Top 3 any order; Manchester City, Manchester Utd, Arsenal – 10/1.

Now I know Chelsea are 2nd favourites to win the league but I’m not so sure it will be as smooth a ride for Conte’s men this time round. Costa is a massive blow – Morata deal is great in the circumstances but I don’t think you can stroll into the PL and be anywhere near as effective an arsehole Costa was easily.

Tottenham have had two fantastic, unprecedented seasons but now there is clear expectation to challenge again and perform better in the Champions League – together with Wembley to deal with. Pochettino really does for me have to take so much credit for getting this decent team reaching for the upper echelons but I can’t see them doing it again unless Daniel Levy starts shadowing Florentino Perez before deadline day. I also feel this disappointment could lead to being the last season for Poch before he’s finally poached by a top club elsewhere.

And for Arsenal… Well I am aware of the saying: NEVER bet on Arsenal, but I do think they’ll escape those classic cycles of choking you could set your watch to without CL knockout stage to deal with. I also don’t think they’ll succumb to pressure from pushing for the title simply as I don’t think they’ll be there – I can see the Manchester clubs both dominating this year as many expected them to do last. Pep’s another season into coaching his players and Jose been installing his nice mix of technical and physical players which he’s always done successfully at his PL teams.

However with Sanchez looking like he’s running down his contract I think he’ll continue to lead Arsenal from the front and with even more decent depth in the squad it will be all in all a good season with CL re-qualification.

QPR to be relegated – 3-1.

The Championship is a cruel league. It’s swallowed up former Premier League sides before in Bolton, Blackburn, Charlton and Wigan in recent years and QPR could easily suffer the same fate.

The signs don’t look good. They lost 7/8 at the end of last season and that saw them slide within 2 points of relegation. Only a win against similarly shoddy survivors Nottingham Forest sealing their Championship status.

The man at the helm now? The man that jokingly claimed “I might be in a bit of a Skoda garage rather than a Mercedes garage, but I am telling you some old bangers don’t half polish up great” when in charge of last successful side Blackpool – back in 2009-2012.

But this Skoda has ran out of juice. Since Ian Holloway’s Blackpool success, he’s posted a derisory win rate of:

2012-13: Crystal Palace: 31.91%

2014-15: Millwall: 22.58%

2016-Present: QPR: 33.33% (Most of those wins during his ‘Honeymoon Period’)

Not exactly inspiring.

So maybe the transfer market will help? Well since Flavio Briatore, Bernie Ecclestone and Tony Fernandes got bored of football, the money dried up. Long gone are they days of splashing out £12.5m on Christopher Samba. This window has been a little more subdued. Just Josh Scowen (Who?) on a freebee from Barnsley in to get the fans buzzing for the new season… Ian Holloway even papering over the cracks in claiming having a troubled Steven Caulker back after a public order offence, alcohol problems and a gambling addiction as a ‘new signing’.

And how did pre-season go? Terrible is the answer. 6 games, 5 loses against low key opposition (Fulham, Reading x 2, Union Berlin, Lokomotive Liepzig, Peterbrough).

It just feels a little too doom and gloom right now down at Loftus Road. We’ve seen clubs in a rut like this struggle to bounce back and this could be season they succumb to the 3rd tier of English football.

Give us feedback of how legendary/shit you think these bets are and let us know any bets you think are worth a look!

The Gambling Panel

Friendly or Foe: Can You Trust a Friendly?

The summer lull is finally nearly over. About a month ago, I had a free weekend with the girlfriend busy, none of the lads about, a whole lot of time to kill. A day of Panel tweets rolling in ahead of me to bet on!

That would have been the case had it been a mid-March Saturday afternoon with a beer in hand and Jeff and the guys on the TV. But this was summer.

I frantically refresh Current Matches hoping for more than the Icelandic Premier division games to appear but no luck. Then I look at our Twitter feed and I see tip after tip from tipsters on Friendlies! Friendlies!!!?? Some of these tipsters are even so bored with lack of football they resort to Tennis, Boxing, F1 – anything they can bet on!

But it is the friendlies that worry me. To me, there are so many unpredictable factors of a friendly (Arsenal even beat Bayern Munich!) that I instinctively dismiss all these ‘tips’. I monitor a few and not many seem to come in. Some tipsters have even released ‘Guides to betting on Friendlies’.

Then, out of nowhere, a tweet:

OVER 0.5 GOALS BET!

#Roma 0 #Slovácko 0

BetScore: 52.22%

Shots On: 3-2

#World

#ClubFriendlies

#2ndHalfGoals

#ClubFriendlies Our automated algorithm tips a Friendly!

I was nervous. We’ve never tipped a friendly before but I still get on.

I look at the line ups. No De Rossi, no Dzeko, no Nainggolan. I recognise about 2 players! Even one player on the subs bench has a question mark by his name on fotmob! It doesn’t look good:

Screenshot_2017-07-20-23-56-56.png

4 subs at HT. Another on 55. 2 more on 64. The game is petering out.

Then, this happened…

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x5tkgir

Goooaall! Lovely move, lovely finish, bet in! Umar Sidiq with the goal for Roma! Maybe friendlies are ok?

Friendly Experiment

In the next few weeks, we are going tip friendlies. Since Roma, we have tipped Liverpool Vs Palace and seen a lot of the big European games tracked on current matches.

So yesterday I decided to do a little experiment. I took 10 friendlies and 10 Europa League games and made up 2 accumulators at about 5-1 based on a favourite winning or double chance to see how predictable a friendly is compared to a real game.

It was just an experiment that I never expected to come in so I placed 50p on each to track the results. Here they are:

Europa League

Screenshot_2017-07-21-08-06-05.png

Friendlies

Screenshot_2017-07-21-08-05-59.png

Interestingly, I was 1 game away from winning big bucks of £2.50 in the friendly acca! The real games only gave me 7/10!

Now I wouldn’t read too much into those results as it’s not the most scientific methodology in the world but in 1 day it was the best I could do! It would be interesting to see over a larger sample of games if their is any kind of trend.

Some Friendly Advice

So the Panel are 2/2 from friendlies so far this summer and we do expect more to be tracked in the build up to next season. My conclusion really is that when these tips come up, they are still worth getting on but be careful. I wouldn’t go staking silly amounts on a friendly as there might not be a young Umar Sidiq at every club to save us. Stick to your staking methodology and even if a few lose, you’ll be up based on our overall win rate.

Have a great weekend.

Alex @gamblingpanel

Panel Warning – Avoid The Emotion!

Ah, the summer! The hottest June on record and I write this blog standing and squashed on a sweaty train packed of miserable commuters on another boiling hot day. Don’t get me wrong I love this time of year however, nothing emphasises it being summer solstice today more than the Gambling Panel’s ridiculously low autotweet volume – just 10 last week. Damn I miss real football!!!

As I try to do my blog research, ignoring the fight that nearly breaks out between one commuter and another because he was ‘pushing me in the fucking back mate’, I thought, it seems like a lot of the other tipsters are tipping just as much now as they do during the season? How can they find the tips when most of the football world are in their summer break

So, I had a look. I took 7 tipsters with between 4k – 150k followers and plotted their tip rate from around March to now (I’ve kept them anonymous as we don’t want to get in any kind of tipster Twitter war).

Capture

*June extrapolated to complete month

 

Season Average vs June Volumes

Season Ave June Percentage Change
Tipster 1 138 132 -4.35%
Tipster 2 180 102 -43.33%
Tipster 3 114 69 -39.47%
Tipster 4 29 32 10.34%
Tipster 5 80 69 -13.75%
Tipster 6 40 24 -40.00%
Tipster 7 131 122 -6.87%
GamblingPanel 232 90 -61.21%


As you can see, some of these guys are tweeting almost just as much – if not more than the regular European season! It feels like they are looking for anything and everything to bet on! Some ‘football’ tipsters even resorting to tennis and horse racing to get their daily kicks!

 

Our tip rate has dropped 61% and most of ours are missed by us as they are through the night South American tips (You lucky lot over in the Americas!). The reason for the drop is simple. Less games = less tips. For us anyway.

I then thought I’d analyse the success rate of the tipsters in June. Now, I have just moved house (to the ‘burbs, hence the commuter moan) so I couldn’t find the time to analysing every tip from every tipster (apparently sorting out the water, gas and electric are more important than the Gambling Panel’s blog – what does she know!) but I managed look at two:

 

Wins Loses Win Rate Average Odds Required Break Even Diff
Tipster 1 33 21 61.11% 1.59 62.89% -1.78%
Tipster 4 17 8 68.00% 1.39 71.61% -3.61%


Both tipsters BOOOM in the winners and mainly ignore the losers but as you can see, both are turning over a loss (if you placed an even stake on all their tips). My point here is be careful…these tipsters want to bet which is too emotional for the panel.

The Emotion of Betting

Humans are emotional. And in the betting world that is dangerous for anybody wanting to turn over profit. Bookies make a fortune out of 99% of their customers relying on this fact. They want you to go chasing. They want you to be invested in ‘Challenge Bets’ that lose on bet 6 or 7. They want your money! And they are pretty good at getting it!

“Another thing that some inexperienced bettor often fear is that they are missing too many good chances, so they will start betting on just about anything to meet their “daily quota””

I took this from an article here about emotional betting.

It is the “daily quota” comment that made me think of good old ‘Big Barry’s Bets’, our fictional tipster, (From a very old blog!) who is probably now scrabbling around the Australian Regional South Australia Premier League on an over 1.5 goals bet on a Saturday morning (This was an actual tip from a tipster!).

Yes we may come across as robotic, but our methodical approach keeps you level headed. We are about taking the emotion out of betting, patience and structured approach – the key to a winning strategy.

“you should never bet if you don’t see true value in the bet you are making, no matter how few bets you make. It’s about finding value and with time your radar will be more accurate and you will be able to find many solid bets. Just remain patient and give yourself time.”

Big panel trip to Madrid this weekend! Shame there is no football, but we’ll keep on monitoring the tweets and I am sure earn some extra Euro’s for the beer whip!

Happy Paneling!

alex@gamblingpanel

Hitting the Sweet Spot!

It’s weird being our first summer on Twitter and not having those regular European fixtures everyday to keep us busy – at this rate I’ll start reflecting on my life. As our promo showed, our global coverage means we still track plenty of leagues inplay but loads are over in South America kicking off through the night so not the most convenient, i think that’s why we get ultra critical feedback in the replies if any lose / goal too early!

You may have read a few posts ago I wrote about tracking the wins and losses based on the BetScore %. I think by the end of the European season the sample is becoming reasonable to hypothesis around what we’re seeing.

The main focus of our service is of course over 0.5, so that’s how I’ve measured success of our BetScore’s tipped. The below graph shows the average winning and losing BetScore % tip since start of 2017: tipscore p_w
Seems on over 0.5, we do have some surprising results when high pressure occurs in the 1st half of games. As you can see, the data points look a bit like a heart rate on the flight home from a stag do but there are some lines of best fit there. The difference in them shows that the average losing BetScore % is actually higher than the winning. Maybe this is where the favourite in these games causes the lesser team to shut up shop soon after half time or if the game is more even, then maybe it just dies out as so much effort is spent going all guns blazing in the 1st half.

When looking at the BetScore’s in intervals of 10% and how they perform, there does seem a sweet spot of the 60-70% range where the win rate is 85%. That’s over 5 wins for each loss and it will be interesting to see if it carries on to next season. We have a balance to find here at Panel HQ where we want to adjust the BetScore algorithm where we see improvements but also need to wait long enough to see a true reflection of what’s going on.

A caveat to this discussion though is although the sample size is larger at this point, the last half of it was through the relegation scraps at season-end. We saw plenty of weird results through that period with more factors in play as some teams had nothing to play for and some with everything to play for. Those with everything seemed to be more likely to defend early and stay resolute to rack up every point possible. It will be interesting to see if we have some irregularities at season-start as well as teams find their feet.

It’s also important to note that this graph does not discuss success of over 1.5. A potential next area I’ll look into is how the BetScore % would compare for winners and losers in this market including the success spread across score intervals. As if you think about how a game pans out, where the big gaps in quality and therefore pressure exist, there is usually a greater likilihood in either staying nil nil if the poor teams parks the bus, or having more than one goal once the deadlock is broken. So there could even be some value on backing the horrible unders market if there is a big gulf of in-play stats, especially if there has been a red card. We won’t go auto-tipping that just yet but we don’t see these factors being considered by the bookies.

Try to enjoy the internationals this weekend and hopefully we’ll have more action from the server in the daytime!

Mike@gamblingpanel

Case Study: Winning With The Panel Part 2

A few months ago we wrote a blog on the different methods we had come up with to try and maximise profit from our tips and different members of The Gambling Panel are continuing to trial these. Everyone has there own method based on their approach to gambling and what their end goal is, so below is a new method that I’ve been trialling.

I’ve gone a slightly different route with the games we tip and I’m exploring the Goal Line market. I took a look at the full time result in all of the games we have tipped in 2017 to try and find what was the best market to bet on and the stats suggest this is the Goal Line 1,1.5 market. For those of you new to the Goal Line market, this bet splits your stake into two. Half of the stake goes onto over 1 goal and the other half goes onto over 1.5 goals. If there are 0 goals in the match you lose your whole stake. If there is only 1 goal in the match then half of your stake is returned. If there are 2 or more goals then the bet wins.

The first table below shows the outcome of the year to date tips and I took these and worked out the return on betting on every game with a level stake of £5 across 5 different markets. These results are shown in the second table.

Games 813
Over 0.5 623
Over 1.5 357
Ended 1-0 266
Losses 190
  Profit Odds
Over 0.5 £    88.23 1.3333
0.5, 1 £    91.25 1.425
Over 1 £  165.60 1.625
1, 1.5 £  348.50 2.1
Over 1.5 £  263.60 2.425

I’ve used the odds that are available at the same time as our recommended minimum on the over 0.5 market (1.333) to keep it consistent. As you can see over this period following any of these methods would have left you with a profit, but clearly the most profitable is the Goal Line over 1,1.5 market. Obviously it’s impossible to get on all of the tips we tweet due to missing the notification or the odds not reaching the desired target, but there are times when you can get better odds than 2.1 and others you miss will inevitably end up losing. These should cover some of those missed winners.

I’ve followed this method over the past month by betting £5 on every tip I could. I currently have a balance of £53.32 without needing to redeposit. In this period I missed tips due to reasons mentioned above and even survived black Saturday when we experienced 6 losses in a row. By using a level stake method you can survive these blips and then reap the rewards on the long winning streaks. The next part of this method will be to increase my stake. Currently I plan to do this when my pot reaches £60 and I will up the stake to £10 per bet. If this bet wins then I will continue with the £10 bets, if it loses then I’ll drop back down to £5 until I reach the £60 mark again. I’m hoping that by following this incremental increase in stake the long term winnings will be much greater.

This method also allows you to be a bit more flexible with the market you bet on. I’ve decided that I want to place at a minimum of 2.0 (evens) so if I do see the notification later in the game then I can switch to one of the bets higher up in my table. Similarly, if the desired odds aren’t there yet and a goal looks likely before they hit I can take over 1.5.

I’ll admit now that this isn’t a get rich quick method but our philosophy is to try and generate a continuous steady income rather than the boom and bust of the £25 to £10000 challenge bet.

Below are the other methods we wrote about in a previous blog in case you missed that one. We’d love to get your feedback on any of our methods that you’ve been following.

Andy@GamblingPanel

1. The Hollywood

With this method, you will need to deposit your stake and keep reinvesting that profit until you lose. Ok, this is more of a theoretical method, but it shows how much could be banked. In the graphic below, we start with £5 and reinvest all winnings and stake. This shows us how much we could have won if withdrawing at the optimum moment:

method-1

As you can see, there are two clear spikes (a 12 game and 13 game winning streak) where we could have withdrawn almost £350. Only problem is, how do we know when to withdraw!?

Take our 22 game winning streak recently. If we had bet on every game starting with £5, assuming odds of around 1.3, we could have bagged £1605.92. Only problem is, if a tipster has won 22 games in a row, chances are you will trust him for bet number 23! Placing a £1605.92 on the 23rd game and losing would be hard to take!

Also, the amount of times we needed to re-invest our £5 over this period means we had to invest £120 to reach these peaks.

So with this strategy, it is possible to win big, but you need a run and you need to know when to withdraw. Set a withdrawal number before you begin. Let’s say it was £100, this 106 game run would have left you £70 up!

2. Mr Consistent

The second method below is more conservative. Here, we start with a stake and place a percentage of that stake on each time. The graph below shows starting with £5 but only placing £2 stakes until reaching £10 where we double the stake to £4. Then on £20, we double to £8, £40 we double to £16 and so on. If we ever lose, we reduce the stake to the bracket we end up in. This is safer and allows you to lose 2/3 in a row without losing outright.

method-2

The problems with this method is how much the loss affects you. The main issues here are around bet number 55 where we lost 3 in a row, then again on bet 83 where our 1 and only £16 bet lost, massively setting us back. Again there is a reliance on a run, and you should set a cash out value from the start. It may take a while, but this method should see you tread enough water to reach that value eventually.

3. Regular Saver

Finally, in the last method, we look at a combination of 1 and 2. Here, we start with £5, reinvest winnings until we reach £10, then withdrawn our £5 stake and play again. Then, when we reach £15, we cash out and start again. This way, we only need about a 6 game winning streak to bank cash.

method-3

See in the graph, every time we hit £15, we withdraw. This happens 5 times in this 106 game period so £75 withdrawn. For this method, we needed to again invest £120 for the losses, however, because we withdraw our stake when we reach £10, we take £90 of that back which leaves us -£30. So £75 – £30 = £45 winnings. We have made 9x our initial investment after just over a 2 month period with a safe strategy based on stats.

What (not) to do when the odds aren’t good enough?

1/9 Pffffftt (insert crying laughter emoji here)

A standard incoming comment at Panel HQ – imagine sent by the Charlie Morgan type person* the sooner we employ someone to find these, delete these and block the sender, the better….. Okay a bit extreme, but we see this all too often.

I can see the logic, I get it – online tipster posting tips at 1/9 is ridiculous. Firstly, it doesn’t take a tipster to say that a 1/9 shot is likely to happen. Secondly, putting £9 on to win 1 is hardly going to get you invited to be the next Dragon in the den. I see your point. But we aren’t just any other tipster saying bet on this, with this amount, at this price – we’re very different.

Here at TGP (that is The Gambling Panel, not some unknown sex abbreviation Twitter would lead you to…) the tips are all automated. Whether it’s 10/1 or 1/10 – if the stats appease the algo, it will tweet! We also don’t dictate how much to bet, which method to use or when to bet. Our service automatically provides you the information that a game is currently 0-0 and looks great for a goal.

As users of our system, we share your frustrations when we check to see Barcelona at home to a Tony Adams “managed” Granada is 1/12 at the time of the tweet… But we don’t tweet our frustration (as it is out of our hands) we wait until it reaches a sensible price, then we bet. If there’s a goal before the price is reasonable, then we don’t go to bed and wait for the South American market to start, simples…

So next time you receive a tweet from The Gambling Panel for a game where the odds aren’t backable yet, before venting your frustration with a tweet to us – think:

– Was the tweet automated?

– Did The Gambling Panel decide the price?

– Can The Gambling Panel do anything about the poor price?

– Can I wait to see the price improve or even back over 1.5 goals?

If the sequence of answers to these questions matches Yes, No, No, Yes – then don’t tweet your annoyance, we already understand. If the sequence of answers to these questions is anything else… stick to following Andy Nobson.

A gambley day in the life of Jay

When I’m not rhyming sub-headers I’m answering another popular question fired into Panel HQ – ‘Which technique is best for long-term profit?’ – now I cant answer this with stats and cold hard facts yet, but I can give you an insight into a technique which has proved successful for me. Even on one of The Panel’s darkest days – Saturday 29th April aka Serie B-gate.

It started so well. Panel day out – Fulham v Brentford. Beers in. Longshot acca’s on. £15 in my account ready to place on the next Gambling Panel tweet. Perfect, and it’s not even 10am.

~BUZZ~ #YanbianFunde 0 #ChangchunYatai 0

So my first port of call is to open FotMob, check the league table – is one team far superior than the other (always a preference), do both teams score and/or concede more than they’ve played (an obvious criteria), have they drawn many recent games 0-0, have there been many 0-0’s in the H2H stats.

All criteria suitably met – 15 sovs on at 1/2. Beer please.

It’s not too long before the winning buzz comes through. Lovely.

£22.50

So another thing I like is to always have money remaining in my account, takes a slight (ever so slight) edge off when that dreaded loss comes. A tenner left in, warchest currently at £12.50…

As the morning went on, the current matches page got refreshed more times than The Fappening website in it’s prime. Desperate for one last cheeky Asian match to tweet. Alas, it didn’t. The European market clocks in.

Whilst I patiently wait for the next bet we managed to find the one of the roughest pubs in Fulham… (yeah apparently they do exist in Fulham) and as luck would have it, not only was the answer to the first pub quiz question ‘What are you looking at?’ Said pub was also incapable of receiving texts and more importantly, tweets… A brace of German losses missed. Luckily, because looking at the stats after I would’ve smashed into the double.

Soon after…

~BUZZ~ #Latina 0 #Ascolii 0

~BUZZ~ #Ternana 0 #Carpi 0

~BUZZ~ #Spezia 0 #SPAL 0

Perfect. An Italian hatty. I’m usually pretty sceptical about one Serie B game, let alone three, but a skinful of Guinness does wonderful (terrible) things. F*ck it – I’m on. £12.50 on the 2.7/1.

Soon after…

Sh*t

All lost. Unheard of from The Panel. Five defeats on the bounce. I was as angry as Troopz hearing Wenger has signed a new 10 year contract. Fam.

No hiding place at Craven Cottage unfortunately. Every direction we turn, another rake to stand on. Apologetic tweet sent. Understandable angry backlash awaits and there were some good’uns…

£10

3pmer’s came and went, left due to a lack of signal inside the Cottage and to regain my composure – more importantly to refrain from chasing (which is so often the temptation).

SOS tenner is in-play and so the run begins…

~BUZZ~ #Boavista 0 #Tondela 0 – 8/15 – IN

£15.33

~BUZZ~ #Vitkovice 0 #UstinadLabem 0 – 2/5 – IN

£21.47 – Security tenner contingency plan out of the window.

~BUZZ~ #Nantes 0 #Lorient 0 – 2/5 – IN

£31.06

~BUZZ~ #RealPotosi 0 #ClubUniversitario 0 – 4/11 – IN

£40.99

~BUZZ~ #Chaves 0 #Porto 0 – 3/10 – IN

£53.28

(Note – more games than this run were tweeted. They just didn’t meet my personal criteria for backing – obviously they all won as well!)

~BUZZ~ #Iberia 0 #CoquimboUnido 0 – 2/5 – IN

£74.60

~BUZZ~ #Guadalajara 0 #Leon 0 – 1/3 – IN

£99.22

What a turn of fortunes! Lady luck finally shining on us. My withdrawal limit is usually £100 but after consuming Ade Akinfenwa’s weight in Tequilla and Espresso Martini’s and with my state of judgement as good as the McCann’s, I’d let the 78p slide.

So there’s an insight into my use of The Gambling Panel’s tweets. It doesn’t always work, sure. But I find it works for me and I can definitely say I’ve withdrawn more than I’ve deposited – so I must be doing something right.

Jay@Gamblingpanel

*Charlie Morgan – Swansea Ballboy vs Chelsea 2013. Remember this guy? Man did he irk me. What a pr*ck. I’m sure he’s matured into a tolerable lad now, but seriously look at that…

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Actually forget it, he’s probably still a ……….

In The Server Room…

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Our Twitter account is 6 months old next week, in that time we’ve had a lot of new followers and lots of new questions recently – thanks for getting involved and all the (nice) comments! I hope a lot of you have been benefiting from our tweets!

The over 0.5 goals market is something we have actually been tracking for nearly 2 years now with 2600+ games in our database. And it is this data that underpins our confidence in the algorithm that decides – come 0-0 at half time – do we tweet a game? We know, based on historic games, we predict that correctly 80% of the time. With that, a bet of better odds than 1/4 (80% Breakeven) is required to guarantee a long term gain.

This is something we wanted to share with the world and hence @gamblingpanel was born!

Principles:

We get asked a lot of questions about ‘What shall I stake?’ and ‘What techniques do you use to win?’, ‘Why are there no tips today?’. There are multiple ways to maximise the profit you can gain from The Panel. In short, we don’t want to tell you how much to bet (We don’t know the size of your bank accounts!) and we have published some of the techniques we have used here: Case Study – Winning With The Panel

Our main principles:

  • Automate
    Our server is a machine without emotion. Automatically tweeting games based on our algorithm keeps our system level-headed. Some tipsters go on a run and get carried away or worse, start chasing losses. This is a massive contradiction on what we are about. The nature of our automation means some days are going to be quiet; some will make you feel like you can’t keep up!
  • Be Consistent
    Once you have a method, do not deviate. We hate seeing challenge bets from tipsters on twitter. When a tipster wins 6,7,8 in a row, it is easy to jump on the bandwagon. But tips lose – and you need to have a consistent method that can handle these losses. Ok, the odd few reach their target and a handful of people make a lot of money from it. But longer term, it is hard to make profit.
  • Use Stats
    Stats inform all of our decisions. From the bets we place, to the betting techniques we use, even the analytics of our own twitter account! There is so much data available and not a lot of people know how to combine, clean and analyse it to make decisions from it.
  • Strive to Improve
    And with this data, we aim to improve. Monitoring all our tips and the outcome of them allows us to add improvements over time.

New Visualisations:

Here are two new visuals added to our weekly stats that can help your betting:

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Historic Win Rate – Shows how we are trying to adapt the algorithm for the better. We monitor our own performance and only make changes that should positively affect our win rate.

Over Goals Analysis – Shows each week if you could have made money betting on over 1.5, 2.5 etc. goals instead.

MemberZone – Coming Soon

Thanks for voting in our recent twitter poll in which you wanted ‘Both Teams to Score’ tweets made available (coming very soon – all the code is in place!). In the background, we have been working hard to utilise some of our existing techniques to analyse other markets – in particular, pre-game markets.

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Part of our plan now is to give our followers the option to sign up to our MemberZone to gain full access to some of the more in-depth stats and some newer markets we roll out. We want to continue to improve and give you new features and it takes time and effort to do that.

We have lots of plans and a huge pipeline of features waiting to be deployed. We are still figuring out exactly what MemberZone is, but rest assured, it will contain the same transparency and same analytical approach we always apply which, as our experience has shown, makes our followers money.

alex@gamblingpanel