Weekly Stats

This Week

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This Week’s Wins

Match Full Time Bet Score
Sirius vs AFC Eskilstuna 1 – 0 57.78%
Östersunds FK vs Jönköpings Södra 1 – 1 62.22%
LDU Quito vs Universidad Catolica 1 – 0 56.67%
Universidad Catolica vs Emelec 1 – 1 58.89%
Barcelona vs Deportivo Cuenca 1 – 0 66.67%
Mariehamn vs Ilves 2 – 2 51.11%
Grêmio vs Avaí 0 – 2 80.0%
United States vs Panama 1 – 1 50.0%
Boston River vs Plaza Colonia 0 – 1 51.11%
Union Comercio vs Alianza Lima 0 – 1 60.0%
Sport Recife vs Arsenal 2 – 0 58.89%
Folgore vs Valletta 0 – 1 64.44%
Valur vs Ventspils 1 – 0 71.11%
Ballymena United vs Odd 0 – 2 57.78%
Dinamo St. Petersburg vs Yenisey 2 – 1 52.22%
Santa Fe vs Atlético Nacional 1 – 0 50.0%
Deportivo Pasto vs Cortuluá 1 – 1 92.22%

This Week’s Loses

Match Full Time Bet Score
Shakhtyor vs Neman Grodno 0 – 0 53.33%
Boa vs CRB 0 – 0 64.44%
Hougang United vs Albirex Niigata S 0 – 0 57.78%

Overall

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Weekly Stats

This Week

WeeklyStats
WeeklyTopCountries
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This Week’s Wins

Match Full Time Bet Score
Newell’s Old Boys vs Godoy Cruz 0 – 2 54.44%
Estudiantes vs Quilmes 1 – 0 74.44%
Geylang International vs Young Lions 2 – 1 72.22%
Warriors vs DPMM 1 – 0 51.11%
Balestier Khalsa vs Home United 1 – 2 71.11%
Spain U21 vs Italy U21 3 – 1 74.44%
Bolívar vs Oriente Petrolero 1 – 0 50.0%
Paraná vs Ceará 1 – 0 56.67%
Internacional vs Boa 0 – 1 50.0%
Cienciano vs Sport Boys 1 – 1 97.78%
Georgia U19 vs Portugal U19 0 – 1 50.0%
Comerciantes Unidos vs Union Comercio 2 – 0 52.22%
Universitario vs Comerciantes Unidos 1 – 0 50.0%
UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima 1 – 0 58.89%
Defensa y Justicia vs Chapecoense 1 – 0 55.56%

This Week’s Loses

Match Full Time Bet Score
Breidablik vs Grindavík 0 – 0 65.56%
Ventforet Kofu vs Sagan Tosu 0 – 0 56.67%
Young Lions vs Warriors 0 – 0 50.0%
Minsk vs Krumkachy 0 – 0 83.33%
Shakhtyor vs Neman Grodno 0 – 0 53.33%
Isloch vs Naftan 0 – 0 97.78%
Vitoria vs Bahia 0 – 0 75.56%
Avaí vs Ponte Preta 0 – 0 50.0%
ENPPI vs El Entag El Harby 0 – 0 81.11%

Overall

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Weekly Stats

This Week

WeeklyStats
WeeklyTopCountries
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This Week’s Wins

Match Full Time Bet Score
River Plate vs Aldosivi 1 – 0 71.11%
Racing Club vs Colon 1 – 0 51.11%
Tigre vs Atlético Rafaela 1 – 0 56.67%
Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia La Plata 1 – 0 78.89%
Gefle vs Åtvidaberg 0 – 1 50.0%
Åsane vs Fredrikstad 1 – 1 53.33%
Rosenborg vs Sogndal 3 – 0 57.78%
Dundalk vs Finn Harps 4 – 0 64.44%
Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United 4 – 1 58.89%
Macará vs Clan Juvenil 2 – 2 60.0%
Ilves vs SJK 1 – 0 51.11%
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Vissel Kobe 2 – 0 51.11%
Gorodeya vs Dinamo Brest 1 – 1 65.56%
Chongqing Dangdai vs Changchun Yatai 1 – 1 52.22%
Blooming vs Petrolero Yacuiba 2 – 0 50.0%
Grêmio vs Corinthians 0 – 1 50.0%
América Mineiro vs Santa Cruz 1 – 0 65.56%
Sergipe vs Jacobina 2 – 0 56.67%
Hougang United vs Ceres 1 – 0 65.56%
Danubio vs Racing 1 – 2 62.22%

This Week’s Loses

Match Full Time Bet Score
Colon vs River Plate 0 – 0 64.44%
Independiente del vs River Ecuador 0 – 0 56.67%
Young Lions vs Balestier Khalsa 0 – 0 77.78%
BATE vs Torpedo BelAZ 0 – 0 54.44%
Beijing Guoan vs Jiangsu Suning 0 – 0 78.89%
Guarani vs Oeste 0 – 0 60.0%
Sport Boys vs César Vallejo 0 – 0 87.78%
El Daklyeh vs Al Mokawloon 0 – 0 56.67%

Overall

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Panel Warning – Avoid The Emotion!

Ah, the summer! The hottest June on record and I write this blog standing and squashed on a sweaty train packed of miserable commuters on another boiling hot day. Don’t get me wrong I love this time of year however, nothing emphasises it being summer solstice today more than the Gambling Panel’s ridiculously low autotweet volume – just 10 last week. Damn I miss real football!!!

As I try to do my blog research, ignoring the fight that nearly breaks out between one commuter and another because he was ‘pushing me in the fucking back mate’, I thought, it seems like a lot of the other tipsters are tipping just as much now as they do during the season? How can they find the tips when most of the football world are in their summer break

So, I had a look. I took 7 tipsters with between 4k – 150k followers and plotted their tip rate from around March to now (I’ve kept them anonymous as we don’t want to get in any kind of tipster Twitter war).

Capture

*June extrapolated to complete month

 

Season Average vs June Volumes

Season Ave June Percentage Change
Tipster 1 138 132 -4.35%
Tipster 2 180 102 -43.33%
Tipster 3 114 69 -39.47%
Tipster 4 29 32 10.34%
Tipster 5 80 69 -13.75%
Tipster 6 40 24 -40.00%
Tipster 7 131 122 -6.87%
GamblingPanel 232 90 -61.21%


As you can see, some of these guys are tweeting almost just as much – if not more than the regular European season! It feels like they are looking for anything and everything to bet on! Some ‘football’ tipsters even resorting to tennis and horse racing to get their daily kicks!

 

Our tip rate has dropped 61% and most of ours are missed by us as they are through the night South American tips (You lucky lot over in the Americas!). The reason for the drop is simple. Less games = less tips. For us anyway.

I then thought I’d analyse the success rate of the tipsters in June. Now, I have just moved house (to the ‘burbs, hence the commuter moan) so I couldn’t find the time to analysing every tip from every tipster (apparently sorting out the water, gas and electric are more important than the Gambling Panel’s blog – what does she know!) but I managed look at two:

 

Wins Loses Win Rate Average Odds Required Break Even Diff
Tipster 1 33 21 61.11% 1.59 62.89% -1.78%
Tipster 4 17 8 68.00% 1.39 71.61% -3.61%


Both tipsters BOOOM in the winners and mainly ignore the losers but as you can see, both are turning over a loss (if you placed an even stake on all their tips). My point here is be careful…these tipsters want to bet which is too emotional for the panel.

The Emotion of Betting

Humans are emotional. And in the betting world that is dangerous for anybody wanting to turn over profit. Bookies make a fortune out of 99% of their customers relying on this fact. They want you to go chasing. They want you to be invested in ‘Challenge Bets’ that lose on bet 6 or 7. They want your money! And they are pretty good at getting it!

“Another thing that some inexperienced bettor often fear is that they are missing too many good chances, so they will start betting on just about anything to meet their “daily quota””

I took this from an article here about emotional betting.

It is the “daily quota” comment that made me think of good old ‘Big Barry’s Bets’, our fictional tipster, (From a very old blog!) who is probably now scrabbling around the Australian Regional South Australia Premier League on an over 1.5 goals bet on a Saturday morning (This was an actual tip from a tipster!).

Yes we may come across as robotic, but our methodical approach keeps you level headed. We are about taking the emotion out of betting, patience and structured approach – the key to a winning strategy.

“you should never bet if you don’t see true value in the bet you are making, no matter how few bets you make. It’s about finding value and with time your radar will be more accurate and you will be able to find many solid bets. Just remain patient and give yourself time.”

Big panel trip to Madrid this weekend! Shame there is no football, but we’ll keep on monitoring the tweets and I am sure earn some extra Euro’s for the beer whip!

Happy Paneling!

alex@gamblingpanel

Weekly Stats

This Week

WeeklyStats
WeeklyTopCountries
WeeklyTopLeagues

This Week’s Wins

Match Full Time Bet Score
Cameroon vs Chile 0 – 2 77.78%
San Martín San Juan vs Temperley 0 – 1 51.11%
Värnamo vs Falkenberg 1 – 1 52.22%
Clan Juvenil vs Fuerza Amarilla 1 – 1 53.33%
Hebei CFFC vs Tianjin Quanjian 1 – 0 64.44%
Grêmio vs Bahia 1 – 0 81.11%
Ríver vs Maranhão 2 – 1 51.11%
Villa Mitre vs Gimnasia Mendoza 1 – 0 64.44%

This Week’s Loses

Match Full Time Bet Score
Paysandu vs Juventude 0 – 0 56.67%
Ituano vs PSTC 0 – 0 61.11%

Overall

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Weekly Stats

This Week

WeeklyStats
WeeklyTopCountries
WeeklyTopLeagues

This Week’s Wins

Match Full Time Bet Score
Finland vs Ukraine 1 – 2 55.56%
Uruguay U20 vs Venezuela U20 <span class=”score-addit 53.33%
Levante vs Huesca 1 – 2 61.11%
Real Valladolid vs Cádiz 1 – 0 110.0%
United States vs Trinidad and Tobago 2 – 0 67.78%
Guillermo Brown vs Douglas Haig 2 – 0 51.11%
Lamia vs Anagennisi Karditsas 0 – 1 61.11%
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Mito Hollyhock 0 – 1 83.33%
Kamatamare Sanuki vs Zweigen Kanazawa 1 – 0 50.0%
Santos vs Botafogo 1 – 0 51.11%
São Paulo vs Vitoria 2 – 0 77.78%
Boa vs Juventude 0 – 2 53.33%
São Paulo RS vs Brusque 1 – 1 54.44%
Israel vs Moldova 1 – 1 50.0%
Olimpo vs Ferro Carril Oeste 1 – 0 54.44%
Georgia vs St. Kitts and Nevis 3 – 0 75.56%
Liverpool vs El Tanque Sisley 2 – 0 54.44%
Melgar vs Alianza Lima 1 – 0 51.11%

This Week’s Loses

Match Full Time Bet Score
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Greece 0 – 0 52.22%
Costa Rica vs Panama 0 – 0 88.89%
Oeste vs Luverdense 0 – 0 63.33%
Ituano vs Metropolitano 0 – 0 51.11%
Boston River vs Peñarol 0 – 0 50.0%
Millonarios vs Atlético Nacional 0 – 0 56.67%

Overall

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Hitting the Sweet Spot!

It’s weird being our first summer on Twitter and not having those regular European fixtures everyday to keep us busy – at this rate I’ll start reflecting on my life. As our promo showed, our global coverage means we still track plenty of leagues inplay but loads are over in South America kicking off through the night so not the most convenient, i think that’s why we get ultra critical feedback in the replies if any lose / goal too early!

You may have read a few posts ago I wrote about tracking the wins and losses based on the BetScore %. I think by the end of the European season the sample is becoming reasonable to hypothesis around what we’re seeing.

The main focus of our service is of course over 0.5, so that’s how I’ve measured success of our BetScore’s tipped. The below graph shows the average winning and losing BetScore % tip since start of 2017: tipscore p_w
Seems on over 0.5, we do have some surprising results when high pressure occurs in the 1st half of games. As you can see, the data points look a bit like a heart rate on the flight home from a stag do but there are some lines of best fit there. The difference in them shows that the average losing BetScore % is actually higher than the winning. Maybe this is where the favourite in these games causes the lesser team to shut up shop soon after half time or if the game is more even, then maybe it just dies out as so much effort is spent going all guns blazing in the 1st half.

When looking at the BetScore’s in intervals of 10% and how they perform, there does seem a sweet spot of the 60-70% range where the win rate is 85%. That’s over 5 wins for each loss and it will be interesting to see if it carries on to next season. We have a balance to find here at Panel HQ where we want to adjust the BetScore algorithm where we see improvements but also need to wait long enough to see a true reflection of what’s going on.

A caveat to this discussion though is although the sample size is larger at this point, the last half of it was through the relegation scraps at season-end. We saw plenty of weird results through that period with more factors in play as some teams had nothing to play for and some with everything to play for. Those with everything seemed to be more likely to defend early and stay resolute to rack up every point possible. It will be interesting to see if we have some irregularities at season-start as well as teams find their feet.

It’s also important to note that this graph does not discuss success of over 1.5. A potential next area I’ll look into is how the BetScore % would compare for winners and losers in this market including the success spread across score intervals. As if you think about how a game pans out, where the big gaps in quality and therefore pressure exist, there is usually a greater likilihood in either staying nil nil if the poor teams parks the bus, or having more than one goal once the deadlock is broken. So there could even be some value on backing the horrible unders market if there is a big gulf of in-play stats, especially if there has been a red card. We won’t go auto-tipping that just yet but we don’t see these factors being considered by the bookies.

Try to enjoy the internationals this weekend and hopefully we’ll have more action from the server in the daytime!

Mike@gamblingpanel