Ah, the summer! The hottest June on record and I write this blog standing and squashed on a sweaty train packed of miserable commuters on another boiling hot day. Don’t get me wrong I love this time of year however, nothing emphasises it being summer solstice today more than the Gambling Panel’s ridiculously low autotweet volume – just 10 last week. Damn I miss real football!!!
As I try to do my blog research, ignoring the fight that nearly breaks out between one commuter and another because he was ‘pushing me in the fucking back mate’, I thought, it seems like a lot of the other tipsters are tipping just as much now as they do during the season? How can they find the tips when most of the football world are in their summer break
So, I had a look. I took 7 tipsters with between 4k – 150k followers and plotted their tip rate from around March to now (I’ve kept them anonymous as we don’t want to get in any kind of tipster Twitter war).
*June extrapolated to complete month
Season Average vs June Volumes
As you can see, some of these guys are tweeting almost just as much – if not more than the regular European season! It feels like they are looking for anything and everything to bet on! Some ‘football’ tipsters even resorting to tennis and horse racing to get their daily kicks!
Our tip rate has dropped 61% and most of ours are missed by us as they are through the night South American tips (You lucky lot over in the Americas!). The reason for the drop is simple. Less games = less tips. For us anyway.
I then thought I’d analyse the success rate of the tipsters in June. Now, I have just moved house (to the ‘burbs, hence the commuter moan) so I couldn’t find the time to analysing every tip from every tipster (apparently sorting out the water, gas and electric are more important than the Gambling Panel’s blog – what does she know!) but I managed look at two:
||Required Break Even
Both tipsters BOOOM in the winners and mainly ignore the losers but as you can see, both are turning over a loss (if you placed an even stake on all their tips). My point here is be careful…these tipsters want to bet which is too emotional for the panel.
The Emotion of Betting
Humans are emotional. And in the betting world that is dangerous for anybody wanting to turn over profit. Bookies make a fortune out of 99% of their customers relying on this fact. They want you to go chasing. They want you to be invested in ‘Challenge Bets’ that lose on bet 6 or 7. They want your money! And they are pretty good at getting it!
“Another thing that some inexperienced bettor often fear is that they are missing too many good chances, so they will start betting on just about anything to meet their “daily quota””
I took this from an article here about emotional betting.
It is the “daily quota” comment that made me think of good old ‘Big Barry’s Bets’, our fictional tipster, (From a very old blog!) who is probably now scrabbling around the Australian Regional South Australia Premier League on an over 1.5 goals bet on a Saturday morning (This was an actual tip from a tipster!).
Yes we may come across as robotic, but our methodical approach keeps you level headed. We are about taking the emotion out of betting, patience and structured approach – the key to a winning strategy.
“you should never bet if you don’t see true value in the bet you are making, no matter how few bets you make. It’s about finding value and with time your radar will be more accurate and you will be able to find many solid bets. Just remain patient and give yourself time.”
Big panel trip to Madrid this weekend! Shame there is no football, but we’ll keep on monitoring the tweets and I am sure earn some extra Euro’s for the beer whip!
It’s weird being our first summer on Twitter and not having those regular European fixtures everyday to keep us busy – at this rate I’ll start reflecting on my life. As our promo showed, our global coverage means we still track plenty of leagues inplay but loads are over in South America kicking off through the night so not the most convenient, i think that’s why we get ultra critical feedback in the replies if any lose / goal too early!
You may have read a few posts ago I wrote about tracking the wins and losses based on the BetScore %. I think by the end of the European season the sample is becoming reasonable to hypothesis around what we’re seeing.
The main focus of our service is of course over 0.5, so that’s how I’ve measured success of our BetScore’s tipped. The below graph shows the average winning and losing BetScore % tip since start of 2017:
Seems on over 0.5, we do have some surprising results when high pressure occurs in the 1st half of games. As you can see, the data points look a bit like a heart rate on the flight home from a stag do but there are some lines of best fit there. The difference in them shows that the average losing BetScore % is actually higher than the winning. Maybe this is where the favourite in these games causes the lesser team to shut up shop soon after half time or if the game is more even, then maybe it just dies out as so much effort is spent going all guns blazing in the 1st half.
When looking at the BetScore’s in intervals of 10% and how they perform, there does seem a sweet spot of the 60-70% range where the win rate is 85%. That’s over 5 wins for each loss and it will be interesting to see if it carries on to next season. We have a balance to find here at Panel HQ where we want to adjust the BetScore algorithm where we see improvements but also need to wait long enough to see a true reflection of what’s going on.
A caveat to this discussion though is although the sample size is larger at this point, the last half of it was through the relegation scraps at season-end. We saw plenty of weird results through that period with more factors in play as some teams had nothing to play for and some with everything to play for. Those with everything seemed to be more likely to defend early and stay resolute to rack up every point possible. It will be interesting to see if we have some irregularities at season-start as well as teams find their feet.
It’s also important to note that this graph does not discuss success of over 1.5. A potential next area I’ll look into is how the BetScore % would compare for winners and losers in this market including the success spread across score intervals. As if you think about how a game pans out, where the big gaps in quality and therefore pressure exist, there is usually a greater likilihood in either staying nil nil if the poor teams parks the bus, or having more than one goal once the deadlock is broken. So there could even be some value on backing the horrible unders market if there is a big gulf of in-play stats, especially if there has been a red card. We won’t go auto-tipping that just yet but we don’t see these factors being considered by the bookies.
Try to enjoy the internationals this weekend and hopefully we’ll have more action from the server in the daytime!