Weekly Stats

This Week

WeeklyStats
WeeklyTopCountries
WeeklyTopLeagues

This Week’s Wins

Match Full Time Bet Score
Ajaccio vs Orléans 1 – 0 53.33%
Willem II vs NEC 0 – 1 51.11%
Stenhousemuir vs Stranraer 1 – 0 65.56%
Bristol City vs Cardiff City 2 – 3 60.0%
Cheltenham Town vs Accrington Stanley 3 – 0 51.11%
Katwijk vs AZ II 0 – 2 55.56%
Vizela vs Academico Viseu 1 – 1 56.67%
Norwich City U23 vs Fulham U23 2 – 2 95.56%
Hong Kong vs Yuen Long 0 – 3 64.44%
Algeria vs Tunisia 1 – 2 55.56%
Cheltenham Town vs Bradford City 0 – 1 54.44%
Colombia U20 vs Paraguay U20 1 – 1 60.0%
Necaxa vs León 0 – 1 67.78%
Zulte-Waregem vs AS Eupen 1 – 0 62.22%
Sanna Khanh Hoa vs FLC Thanh Hoa 0 – 2 61.11%

This Week’s Loses

Match Full Time Bet Score
Cefn Druids vs Carmarthen Town 0 – 0 61.11%
Leganés vs Athletic Club 0 – 0 60.0%
Aston Villa U23 vs Middlesbrough U23 0 – 0 61.11%
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Sivasspor 0 – 0 64.44%
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiakos Piraeus 0 – 0 83.33%

Overall

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“THERE’S ONLY ONE DAVID BELLION…” Luckily.

Gone are the Friday nights where my pals and I would convene at the local park, convince the friendliest (stupidest) dog walker to buy us bottles of the corner shops finest (strongest) cider, drink aforementioned cider in record speed, throw up aforementioned record speed consumed cider, initiate drunk conversation with parents about their choice of television watching entertainment to appear ‘sober’.

My Friday nights now consist of secretly streaming Ligue Deux games (Nimes v Le Havre specifically last week) whilst pretending to be interested in whatever Miss Gambling Panel has chosen for us to watch that night. God I miss White Lightning (other unnecessarily strong cider brands are available).

Not even corner shops strongest cider could shrug off the disappointment of that particular 0-0. A weeks worth of meticulous match selection.

Twitter notification.

3/10.

Place bet.

GOAL!

Next bet.

I had managed to beg, steal and borrow my way up to 68 sovs from a fiver (method known as ‘The Hollywood’ read more on other methods here https://wordpress.com/post/thegamblingpanel.com/6414). This meant only two more bets to reach the holy grail. £100.

Buzz went the phone – 71.1% proclaimed the Tweet – Place bet went the thumb – 0-0 goes the final score. F*ck you Nimes v Le Havre. F*ck you Celebrity Big Brother I’m now committed to watching.

Minutes after the final whistle, the post-match inquest commences. This is the second week running I’ve been stung by the French, and this time I’m not having it! With The Panel’s analytics department on call 24/7, I managed to access stats for me to draw some conclusions from the outcome:

– France Panel win % = 61% (20% lower than our overall win rate)

– Ligue 2 draw % = 35% (extremely high compared to the Premier Leagues 22%, Nimes draw % = 40%!)

– Ligue 2 average goals per game = 2.27 (this is lower than average amongst leagues in Europe, Premier League = 2.86)

– Le Havre have Ligue 2 second best defensive record and 5th worst scoring record.

– Separated by only two points (suggests teams of very similar quality, ability to cancel each other out)

This is the level of The Panel’s analytical interrogation and how we are constantly striving to improve upon our 81% win rate. In time, this sort of analysis will be integrated into the BetScore and hopefully next time my phone buzzes with a Ligue Deux game, it better be a bloody good’un.

After witnessing such shithousery two weeks running, completely ruining my Friday night, it’s easy to see why players such as: Didier Agathe, Morgan Amalfitano, Jordan Amavi, Ibrahim Ba, David Bellion, Jean-Alain Boumsong, Remy Cabella, Bruno Cheyrou, Ousmane Dabo, Stephane Dalmat, Mathieu Debuchy, All the Diarra’s, Didier Digard, Christophe Dugarry, Bafetimbi Gomis, Yoan Gouffran, Stephane Guivar’ch, Olivier Kapo, Christian Karembeu, Anthony Le Tallec, Eliaquim Mangala, Steve Marlet, Yann M’Villa, David N’Gog, Gabriel Obertan, Frederic Piquionne, Emmanuel Riviere, Yaya Sanogo, Sebastian Schemmel, Florent Sinama Pongolle, Sebastian Squillaci, Benjamin Stamboli, Florian Thauvin, Jordan Veretout, Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa, Paul Pogba… never made it in the Prem.

Ones to Watch:

Al Ahli v Al Shoalah (Friday 17:10 – Saudi Arabia)

“Beer please bar-keep… Oh, and have you got Al Jazeera TV?”

A common quote used by Panellers this Friday evening, looking to keep an eye on this one. This game looks good for goals, we’re just hoping they’re all in the second half. Al Ahli will be resting important players for this cup tie as their attention is fully focused on the league, they still however have the quality to make the breakthrough. Saudi Arabia have a decent record for The Panel with a win rate of 84.6%.

Helmond Sport v Oss (Friday 19:00 – Netherlands)

Let’s have it right, there’s as much chance of picking a game in this feature that will appear as a tweet as there is being a 0-0 in this division. With a total disregard for defending, I’m relying on the keepers of both of these teams having a blinder… until the 65th minute. Oss average more goals per game than wees I have in a day (4.85) and Helmond Sport are banging in and conceding goals like they’re going out of fashion. With a league win rate of 80% and a Panel win rate of 84.3%, if this is 0-0 at half time make sure you lump on… before preparing for the end of the world.

Man City v Spurs (Saturday 17:30 – Premier League)

This is quite an easy one and also the most probable of all three. Neither side can afford to lose so expect a cagey first half. Both would secretly quite like to win, so expect a more expansive second. Combine that with Bravo and Stones being rubbish and Alli and Kane being quite decent, can definitely see goals, eventually…

Jay@Gamblingpanel

Weekly Stats

This Week

WeeklyStats
WeeklyTopCountries
WeeklyTopLeagues

This Week’s Wins

Match Full Time Bet Score
Achilles ’29 vs Fortuna Sittard 0 – 1 70.0%
MVV vs Helmond Sport 2 – 0 60.0%
Cowdenbeath vs Berwick Rangers 0 – 1 51.11%
Karmiotissa vs Omonia Nicosia 0 – 1 50.0%
Las Palmas vs Sporting Gijón 1 – 0 52.22%
Portimonense vs Santa Clara 1 – 0 55.56%
Manchester City U23 vs Tottenham Hotspur U23 2 – 2 54.44%
Empoli vs Palermo 1 – 0 52.22%
Lazio vs Crotone 1 – 0 52.22%
Milan vs Cagliari 1 – 0 50.0%
Lamia vs Agrotikos Asteras 2 – 1 52.22%
Marítimo vs Sporting Braga 0 – 1 67.78%
Toulouse vs Olympique Marseille 1 – 1 52.22%
Panaitolikos vs PAOK 0 – 2 53.33%
Al Ahli vs Al Sadd 0 – 1 54.44%
Can Tho vs Long An 1 – 2 60.0%

This Week’s Loses

Match Full Time Bet Score
Nîmes vs Le Havre 0 – 0 71.11%
Liverpool vs Plymouth Argyle 0 – 0 55.56%
Bristol City vs Fleetwood Town 0 – 0 67.78%
Istres vs Consolat Marseille 0 – 0 62.22%
Tigres UANL vs Santos Laguna 0 – 0 50.0%

Overall

OverallStats
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TopLeagues
TopTeams

Case Study: Winning With The Panel

How many times do you log into Facebook or Twitter and see a post from that scatty guy in the year above from school post another one of his ‘constant’ winning betting slips? £300 off a £40 first goalscorer bet or £500 off a 10/1 £50 acca. And the bragging -“Look at me, I earn money from gambling”. God it’s painful.

Now I’m pretty sure this guy still lives at home with his Mum and Dad, has the same bartender job he was working in 10 years ago, in the same bar that has changed it’s name 3/4 times since sixth form where we’d stock up on £1 bottles of Becks on a Tuesday night, and more importantly – this guy doesn’t post his MANY losing betting slips!

Now I am not saying you cannot make money from betting, but it is strange that Betfair post £393.6 million turnover, PaddyPower €881.6 million and Bet365 £1.5 billion, yet we see guys like the above, and many many many tipsters claiming to make money from them to help you win.

Strategy, Stats, Safety

Where The Panel try to be a bit different, is use statistical evidence to show how to win and address the situations where we do not. The key to the success of The Panel’s backing of the over 0.5 market is ensuring that a safe strategy is in place so that you are almost always guaranteed to make a profit. On the face of it, we encourage you to bet on our automated tweets at minimum 1/3 odds. This means that for every 4 bets, we can afford to lose 1 and still turn over a profit. Therefore, we need to run at at least a 75% win rate on all our tweets. We currently operate at 81%.

Case Study: 106 Bets 26/11/16 – 08/01/17

To prove this point, I decided to run a trial in which I would bet on every single game that we tweet to our followers that I possibly can (unfortunately I have a day job and have to sleep!). I’d also wait until it reached at least ⅓ odds (see full bet list at the end of this blog)

Below outlines three methodologies you could have followed:

1. The Hollywood

With this method, you will need to deposit your stake and keep reinvesting that profit until you lose. Ok, this is more of a theoretical method, but it shows how much could be banked. In the graphic below, we start with £5 and reinvest all winnings and stake. This shows us how much we could have won if withdrawing at the optimum moment:

method-1

As you can see, there are two clear spikes (a 12 game and 13 game winning streak) where we could have withdrawn almost £350. Only problem is, how do we know when to withdraw!?

Take our 22 game winning streak recently. If we had bet on every game starting with £5, assuming odds of around 1.3, we could have bagged £1605.92. Only problem is, if a tipster has won 22 games in a row, chances are you will trust him for bet number 23! Placing a £1605.92 on the 23rd game and losing would be hard to take!

Also, the amount of times we needed to re-invest our £5 over this period means we had to invest £120 to reach these peaks.

So with this strategy, it is possible to win big, but you need a run and you need to know when to withdraw. Set a withdrawal number before you begin. Let’s say it was £100, this 106 game run would have left you £70 up!

2. Mr Consistent

The second method below is more conservative. Here, we start with a stake and place a percentage of that stake on each time. The graph below shows starting with £5 but only placing £2 stakes until reaching £10 where we double the stake to £4. Then on £20, we double to £8, £40 we double to £16 and so on. If we ever lose, we reduce the stake to the bracket we end up in. This is safer and allows you to lose 2/3 in a row without losing outright.

method-2

The problems with this method is how much the loss affects you. The main issues here are around bet number 55 where we lost 3 in a row, then again on bet 83 where our 1 and only £16 bet lost, massively setting us back. Again there is a reliance on a run, and you should set a cash out value from the start. It may take a while, but this method should see you tread enough water to reach that value eventually.

3. Regular Saver

Finally, in the last method, we look at a combination of 1 and 2. Here, we start with £5, reinvest winnings until we reach £10, then withdrawn our £5 stake and play again. Then, when we reach £15, we cash out and start again. This way, we only need about a 6 game winning streak to bank cash.

method-3

See in the graph, every time we hit £15, we withdraw. This happens 5 times in this 106 game period so £75 withdrawn. For this method, we needed to again invest £120 for the losses, however, because we withdraw our stake when we reach £10, we take £90 of that back which leaves us -£30. So £75 – £30 = £45 winnings. We have made 9x our initial investment after just over a 2 month period with a safe strategy based on stats.

Win rate

For this period, we can see our win rate converges towards 78% win rate:

win-rate

The higher this percentage, the higher your return so the panel are dedicated to improving upon the current 81% win rate (over 2000+ games). Using this data, we are constantly adapting the bet score algorithm to make it more and more likely to tweet a winner.

Case Study Matches:

matches

Ones to Watch

Crawley Town v Hartlepool United (Saturday 15:00  – League Two)

Both teams like to score and leak goals and they will go into the game knowing so. For this reason I expect a tight first half that is waiting to explode – hopefully in the second half! Crawley sit in our top 10 overall teams for wins (See https://thegamblingpanel.com/2017/01/07/weekly-stats-4/) so have been good to the panel in the past. Let’s just hope that we are not logging into Facebook and seeing you know who getting in on the act!

Brechin City Vs Queen’s Park (Saturday 15:00 – Scottish League One)

It is our weekly stats that draws me to this one as well. Not only does Scottish League One have a 100% win rate, but Queen’s Park sit in our top 10 teams as well. Brechin City have lost their last two games 1-0 on both occasions conceding in the second half (71st, 77th respectively) adds to the draw of this one

Portimonense Vs Sporting CP B (Sunday 11:15 – Portuguese Segunda Liga)

You may recognise Portimonense. They have been tweeted by the automated tweet 3 times since December 11th. We lost the first, but since they have picked up two 1-0 wins for us with 2nd half goals. Top vs 15th in the Segunda Liga so you can see Portimonense winning – let’s hope it is in the 2nd half!

alex@gamblingpanel

Weekly Stats

This Week

WeeklyStats
WeeklyTopCountries
WeeklyTopLeagues

This Week’s Wins

Match Full Time Bet Score
Hull City vs Manchester City 0 – 3 63.33%
Manchester United vs Middlesbrough 2 – 1 54.44%
Everton vs Southampton 3 – 0 55.56%
Inverness CT vs Motherwell 1 – 2 62.22%
Brechin City vs Peterhead 0 – 1 54.44%
Newcastle United vs Sheffield Wednesday 0 – 1 51.11%
Huddersfield Town vs Blackburn Rovers 1 – 1 52.22%
Nottingham Forest vs Barnsley 0 – 1 78.89%
Sheffield United vs Northampton Town 1 – 0 86.67%
Doncaster Rovers vs Stevenage 1 – 0 57.78%
Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruña 1 – 1 53.33%
Levadiakos FC vs PAOK Thessaloniki FC 0 – 1 60.20%
Porto vs Feirense 1 – 1 82.22%
Marítimo vs Rio Ave 1 – 0 54.44%

This Week’s Loses

Match Full Time Bet Score
Middlesbrough vs Leicester City 0 – 0 53.26%
Partick Thistle vs Kilmarnock 0 – 0 53.33%
Sheffield Wednesday vs Wolverhampton Wand 0 – 0 54.44%
Morecambe vs Crewe Alexandra 0 – 0 68.89%
Latina vs Avellino 0 – 0 82.22%
Spezia vs Vicenza 0 – 0 83.33%
Al Wakrah vs El Jaish 0 – 0 51.11%

Overall

OverallStats
TopCountries
TopLeagues
TopTeams

Festive Football – Be Careful What You Wish For…

Happy New Year to all. Unfortunately it wasn’t the start we were hoping for and last weekend we tipped just 4/7 correctly. Although continuing the festivities in a hazy blur was tempting, we needed to do a post-mortem on that day and determine why the success rate was down so much compared to the average of 81%.

Well, looking at the games selected on some it could be argued that lady luck was nowhere to be found. One falling into this category was Morecambe vs Crewe with 17 shots, 10 of which were on target at HT. Now, although the we only had a tracked 50% success rate of wins with such shots stats, the attacks continued to ramp up into the 2nd half. Therefore if we are being methodical, has a mistake actually been made? Under the observed in-play conditions there should have been a goal. Admittedly these two were struggling in the league table lying 19th and 16th respectively.

Others which possibly also struggled from a quality perspective were Boro vs Leicester where both could not break through. Clues in these matches may point to shortening confidence due to the teams not being in the greatest of form. However Sheffield Weds vs Wolves did not fall into this category, with Wednesday going great guns so maybe a different factor being applied there.

Perhaps ultimately, the New Years day fixtures consisted of 7 nil nils at full time. That is a record since we have begun and of course means there were more land mines to avoid that day.  Maybe the congested Christmas fixture list caught up with teams trying to find a breakthrough in the final third of many ties and players’ legs went; something we will need to factor into such periods of a season.

Regardless of whether sod’s law was to blame or it truly was an incorrect pick on the balance of probability, the outcome is the same, money out of the wallet. Therefore assessing likelihood of losing cannot be ignored, so expect more analysis from us justifying overall ROI in the future throughout peaks and troughs of a season – we’re all aware that strange results also occur in those relegation battles where arguably there’s more desperation to score. Anyway, the aim is to help you to be informed of how many losses could theoretically be experienced consecutively and therefore what pot size is needed to deal with these sore patches to get back to the good times.

A frustrating weekend but we will argue it should not happen again on the balance of probability.

Good news this week is normality seems to have resumed and they’ll be big gulfs in class occurring across Europe as domestic cup competitions come into the fray.

One’s to watch:

Monaco v Ac Ajaccio – (Friday 20:00 – French Cup)
Monaco obviously huge favourites for this one being a division above. So much so and with ACA being away I feel this forces their hand and back them here to try and park the bus and hold out to half time.

Hibernian v Dundee – (Friday 19:45 – Scottish Championship)
This top of the table clash could start cagey with Hibs drawing their last 2/3 and Dundee losing last game. With both teams not feeling invincible I can see no breakthrough until the 2nd half when I suspect at least one team will show their quality.

PAOK Thessaloniki v PAS Giannina – (Sunday 13:00 – Greek Superleague)
I’m rewarding a team here which has come in once already this week. PAOK are scoring for fun recently with recent form being 0-7 0-5 and 0-1,however two recent gritty displays by PAS including a draw against AEK Athens is why I fancy them to prolong the inevitable until the 2nd half.

Mike@gamblingpanel

Weekly Stats

This Week

WeeklyStats
WeeklyTopCountries
WeeklyTopLeagues

This Week’s Wins

Match Full Time Bet Score
Hull City vs Manchester City 0 – 3 63.33%
Inverness CT vs Motherwell 1 – 2 62.22%
Peterhead vs Stenhousemuir 0 – 2 54.44%
Newcastle United vs Sheffield Wednesday 0 – 1 51.11%
Peterborough United vs Gillingham 1 – 1 52.22%
Tranmere Rovers vs Macclesfield Town 1 – 0 52.22%
Porto vs Feirense 1 – 1 82.22%

This Week’s Loses

Match Full Time Bet Score
Bordeaux vs Nice 0 – 0 58.89%
Latina vs Avellino 0 – 0 82.22%
Spezia vs Vicenza 0 – 0 83.33%

Overall

OverallStats
TopCountries
TopLeagues
TopTeams